Through two weeks, the Vikings have built a 2-0 start on a mix of real defensive juice and a few things that probably won’t keep happening forever.
That’s the tension at the heart of the early read on this team. The headline items are easy to spot: the defense has drawn heavy praise, Dallas Turner’s rise has grabbed attention, Brian Flores keeps getting lauded, Carson Wentz has handled the fill-in role without turning the ball over, and Kevin O’Connell has leaned into the run with conviction.
But the box-score underbelly tells a less flattering story. Minnesota sits only ahead of the Falcons in passing yards per game, ranks 29th in first downs, 25th in rush yards per attempt and 25th in yards allowed on defense.
A lot of the winning formula has also been built on plays that are tough to count on again and again. Opponents have converted just 1-for-7 red-zone touchdowns against the Vikings so far, a rate that’s not built to last.
Last season, Minnesota was already strong there, finishing No. 2 in red-zone defense and allowing touchdowns on 42.9% of trips. But it’s one thing to be good in the red area and another to expect strip sacks at the goal line, forced fumbles right as Chicago was about to score, blocked field goals, drive-sustaining penalties against Green Bay, and 68-yard kick returns to keep showing up.
If the Vikings played 100 games the way they did against Green Bay and Chicago, there’s no reason to believe a big chunk of those would end the same way.
Still, it would be a mistake to brush this off as pure luck. Flores’s defense has been a chaos machine for years now, and this looks like his most complete group from a personnel standpoint.
Minnesota has spent multiple seasons assembling it, bringing in players like Blake Cashman, Andrew Van Ginkel, Eric Wilson and Isaiah Rodgers while also developing Turner and Levi Drake Rodriguez. Everyone who started Sunday’s game against the Bears has been in the system for multiple years, which gives Flores the freedom to keep dialing up pressure and disguising coverage the way he wants.
That matters because his whole approach depends on forcing confusion. The Vikings send extra rushers, cover the back end with zones and ask offenses to sort it out on the fly.
That’s not always simple from a communication standpoint, but it’s a style Minnesota can keep rolling out week after week. It’s also part of why this defense has stayed dangerous: last year it was top five in sacks, and in 2024 it finished No. 1 in interceptions.
The caveat is depth. If the season wears on and Minnesota has to lean further down the chart at outside or inside linebacker, the defense can lose some of its edge.
That was already an issue last season when Cashman and Van Ginkel were out. And against the Bears, the D-line took a hit when Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins missed more than half the game, forcing rookie Caleb Banks into more action than the team wanted.
Chicago made that count with several big runs.
So the defense is both sustainable and vulnerable.
The offense is easier to explain away, at least for now. Wentz was dropped into the lineup with no practice with the first team and still managed to play competent football against the Packers.
Then his second start came in a driving rainstorm with plenty of wind. Those are not ideal conditions for drawing sweeping conclusions.
And while the passing game has looked limited, there’s room for it to be better. Kyler Murray was Pro Football Focus’s 11th-ranked quarterback in 2024 and ninth in ESPN’s quarterback rating stat that same year, and he has already powered big seasons for receivers like DeAndre Hopkins and Trey McBride.
Nobody is pretending Murray is about to turn into Josh Allen in Minnesota’s offense, and O’Connell has made it clear he doesn’t want him trying to play hero ball. But he can be a lot better than the Vikings’ 31st ranking in passing yards per game.
That’s the real pivot point. Even with a run-first approach, the Cardinals were 18th in passing yards in 2024, and they did it without anyone close to Justin Jefferson.
If Minnesota gets its passing game closer to normal for starting-caliber quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold, the defense gets more margin for error. Then the season won’t have to swing on red-zone stops and turnover luck every single week.
The Vikings don’t need to apologize for the breaks they’ve caught. They do need Murray healthy and playing like a top-half passer if they want this to hold up as something more than a hot start.
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