The Vikings are heading into another season with the same old kind of question hanging over them: are they about to beat the numbers again, or are the numbers about to catch them?
Under Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota has become a pretty clean case study in how volatile the modern NFL can be. In all four completed seasons of his tenure, the Vikings were projected by betting and analytics sites to land somewhere between 7.5 and nine wins.
Twice they smashed past that range - 13 wins in 2022 and 14 in 2024 - and both of those years were fueled by strong play in close games and steady quarterback health from veteran passers. In 2023, the bottom dropped out when QB health and those close-game breaks went the other way.
Then in 2025, they finished with five straight wins to get past their 8.5-win projection, but only after a 4-8 start and a late run against games that carried less weight. Even with the finish, that season still fell short of what the team expected internally.
Now comes 2026, and the setup looks awfully familiar. Once again, the Vikings’ projected win total sits at 8.5.
That’s why this season feels like it may turn on a small cluster of games rather than the full schedule. As discussed on Thursday’s Daily Delivery podcast, the bigger story of the year - and maybe the broader direction of the O’Connell era - could hinge on whether Minnesota can win enough of those swing games to get to double digits and back into the playoffs.
The math is simple enough. There are games the Vikings should probably win.
There are games they’ll likely lose. The real season-definers are the tossups.
Those are the ones that will tell us whether Minnesota is headed for another overachieving run or another year of falling short of expectation.
In Other News...
Vikings Cornerback Suddenly Facing A Defining Summer In Minnesota
Dwight McGlothern has been around long enough now to know what this summer means. The third-year cornerback is back in a familiar defensive system and trying to turn that comfort into a real foothold on the Vikings' roster, but the path is getting tighter by the day. Minnesota usually keeps only four cornerbacks, so every practice rep and preseason snap matters when the room is crowded and the margin for error is thin.
McGlothern does have a case to make. He has shown some playmaking ability and, among the likely contenders, he brings the most experience in Brian Flores' scheme. The challenge is proving that familiarity is enough to separate him from the rest of the pack and to show he has developed into more than just a depth option, because for a player in his spot, this kind of summer can decide everything. [Read more 🡒]
Vikings May Have Quietly Found The Secondary Help Fans Wanted
The Vikings spent free agency looking for help in the secondary, and James Pierre may have been one of the quieter answers they found. Minnesota brought in the former Steelers corner on a two-year, $8.5 million deal after a strong 2025 season, and the move gives the defense a veteran with a recent track record of holding up well in coverage.
Brian Flores already knows what Pierre can bring from their time together in Pittsburgh, which only adds to the appeal for a Vikings staff trying to stabilize the back end. ESPN has also pegged Pierre as a breakout name to watch in Minnesota, and if that projection sticks, this could end up looking like one of those under-the-radar signings that matters more than it first seemed. [Read more 🡒]