Sean Payton had his moment in 2024, grinning as the Broncos landed Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick while the Vikings moved up for J.J. McCarthy. Now, that draft-night jab has started to look a lot less clean.
Minnesota jumped one spot in the first round to secure McCarthy at No. 10, sending the 11th overall pick, a fourth-round pick at No. 129 and a fifth-round pick at No. 157 to the New York Jets in exchange for the 10th selection and a sixth-round pick at No. 203. McCarthy never got the chance to build much of a career in Minnesota, instead moving on to the New York Giants after a trade.
Payton, then in Denver, took the opportunity to enjoy the moment. “I was actively involved in trying to pretend we were moving forward,” Payton told reporters with a smirk.
When it comes to something this specific relative to the quarterback, man, you just don’t want others to know that this is their focal point.
...We just didn’t want to overthink it. [Nix] was our guy.”
At the time, plenty around the league saw the Broncos as the team that landed the value. The Vikings, according to Bob McGinn of the Go Long Substack, leaned toward McCarthy because he was three years younger and carried more ceiling, while Nix came with a “game manager” label out of Oregon’s QB-friendly offense.
That label has followed Nix into the pros. His rookie season was productive: 66.3 percent completions, 3,775 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, good enough to place third in the NFL’s Rookie of the Year voting. He also helped Denver reach the AFC Championship Game and could have pushed them to the Super Bowl if not for the broken ankle he suffered in a Divisional Round win over the Buffalo Bills last January.
This season has gone the other direction. Nix’s completion percentage has dropped for a third straight year, down to 60.3 percent, and his quarterback rating has fallen from 93.3 as a rookie to 79.4. Through three games, he has thrown for 1,049 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions, but Thursday’s overtime win over the Seattle Seahawks was the low point: just 107 scoreless yards and an average of 4.0 air yards per attempt.
That performance drew a blunt assessment from Amazon Prime analyst Ryan Fitzpatrick.
“I’m glad they scored the two touchdowns in the first half, but they were in four-minute mode when the second half started.
It was really frustrating to watch. And part of it, for me, is Bo Nix is not playing competitively. It’s almost disrespectful to the quarterback position how he’s playing right now.”
Troy Renck of the Denver Post was just as direct, pointing to the Broncos’ 4-for-26 showing on third down over their past two games and arguing that the team may need to rethink everything.
“At this point, Nix aspires to be a game manager. His goal is to avoid turnovers and sacks.
Payton’s first-half play-calling was on point. But he cannot script an entire game.
It sure looked like Payton did not trust Nix to make plays after halftime. And Nix followed suit by not making any.
It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.
...Until Nix proves he can regularly complete passes of over 10 yards in the air, the Broncos’ problems will go well beyond Fitzpatrick.”
The irony for Minnesota is that the quarterback they passed on has become Payton’s problem, and it’s a costly one. Nix is 28-12 as a starter, which keeps Denver in the uncomfortable middle ground: good enough to avoid a full reset, not quite good enough to stop questions about whether the Broncos could be staring at a $55 million-per-year decision when his rookie deal ends after the 2028 season, assuming they pick up his fifth-year option.
If that happens, Denver will have to make hard choices on the roster or let Nix walk and hope another answer shows up in free agency or the draft. That was the concern behind Minnesota’s choice, and it’s the one now hanging over Payton.
For Vikings fans, there’s some satisfaction in watching the quarterback Payton seemed so pleased to get now delivering headaches instead of victory laps. Payton’s history in Minnesota only adds to that reaction, from his role in the “Bountygate” scandal during the 2009 NFC Championship to mocking the SKOL clap before the “Minneapolis Miracle” in the 2017 NFC Divisional Round.
FOX Sports’ Jay Glazer also reported that the Broncos changed their offensive terminology when Davis Webb became offensive coordinator and play-caller last spring, then changed it back after Payton reclaimed those duties on October 8.
That’s part of why this has turned into more than just a rough stretch for Nix. It’s a reminder that the player Payton once framed as the right answer is now at the center of a mess Denver may have to untangle.
And while Minnesota shouldn’t be declaring victory just because it passed on Nix, the Vikings did come away with another useful piece from the trade. They used the sixth-round pick from the McCarthy deal to select Will Reichard, who has been one of the most valuable players in the team’s 5-0 start.
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