The Green Bay Packers are still in the NFC North fight - but just barely. Heading into Week 17, they sit in second place behind the Chicago Bears, and the path to a division title is narrow. To keep that hope alive, Green Bay needs two things this weekend: a win over the Baltimore Ravens and a Bears loss to the San Francisco 49ers.
But here’s the twist - the Packers have already punched their ticket to the postseason, thanks to a surprising Thursday night result. The Detroit Lions fell to the Minnesota Vikings, and that loss clinched a playoff berth for Green Bay. The Packers could’ve secured that spot themselves with a win over Baltimore, but Detroit’s stumble took care of business early.
Still, that same Lions loss is a double-edged sword. While it helped the Packers get into the dance, it might also hurt their shot at the division crown. If Green Bay handles its business this weekend and Chicago slips against San Francisco, the Packers would enter Week 18 with a chance to steal the NFC North - but only if Detroit beats Chicago in the season finale.
And that’s where things get complicated.
Because of their Week 17 loss, the Lions are now out of playoff contention and locked into last place in the division. That means next week’s game against the Bears is, on paper, meaningless for Detroit. With nothing to play for, it wouldn’t be shocking if the Lions opt to rest their starters - and they’ve got reasons to consider it.
First, there’s the obvious: protecting their key players from injury in a game that won’t impact their season. No coach wants to risk a long-term injury in a game that doesn’t move the needle.
But there’s a strategic layer to this, too. If the Lions finish in last place in the NFC North, they’ll earn a fourth-place schedule for next season - and that’s a big deal. The difference between third and fourth place in terms of opponents is significant.
Right now, if Detroit were to finish third, they’d be looking at matchups next season against the Los Angeles Rams (11-4), Indianapolis Colts (8-7), and Washington Commanders (4-12). That’s a tough slate, especially considering the Rams and Colts are both playoff contenders.
But if they stay in fourth, the Lions would instead face the Arizona Cardinals (3-12), Tennessee Titans (3-12), and New York Giants (3-12). That’s a much softer landing - and could be the kind of schedule that helps a team bounce back quickly.
So while the Lions have every incentive to sit their stars, there’s always the wildcard factor: Dan Campbell. The Lions' head coach is known for his intensity and pride, and it wouldn’t be out of character for him to rally his team to finish strong, regardless of what’s at stake.
That might not be the smartest move for Detroit’s long-term outlook, but it would be music to the Packers’ ears - assuming Green Bay is still in the hunt when Week 18 arrives.
Bottom line: the Packers are in the playoffs, but their shot at the division depends on a domino effect that starts this weekend and hinges on what the Lions decide to do next. The margin for error is razor-thin, and the next two weeks could define how far Green Bay goes - and how they get there.