The Minnesota Vikings spent last season drowning in the kind of mistakes that wreck an offense before it ever has a chance to breathe.
A league-worst 30 turnovers and 60 sacks turned the unit into a weekly mess, and even with a healthier offensive line expected to ease some of the protection issues, the bigger question still hangs over 2026: who’s running the show at quarterback?
J.J. McCarthy got the first crack at it in 2025, and the results were rough. He was involved in plenty of Minnesota’s ugly moments, and while he’s probably better now than he was then, the expectation is that Kyler Murray will be the one taking over this season.
That’s the part that makes Murray such an interesting fit. He’s known for the fireworks - the arm talent, the legs, the plays that can flip a game in an instant. But the Vikings may need something even more valuable from him: the plain, steady, unglamorous stuff that keeps an offense on schedule.
Pro Football Focus dug into “zero-graded” throws, the kind that land right in the middle of its two- to minus-two grading scale. PFF calls them ordinary, explaining, “There is no exceptional decision.
You won’t see it on a highlights show or the condensed-game replay. A zero-graded throw is the ‘control group’ of quarterback play - simply a quarterback doing his job, making a play that an NFL quarterback would be expected to make.”
That means the checkdown. The quick slant.
The bubble screen. The routine stuff that doesn’t make noise, but absolutely keeps drives alive.
Last season, only six quarterbacks posted a positive EPA per attempt on those zero-graded throws, and Murray came in fifth at 0.028, just behind Matthew Stafford.
Josh Allen (0.173)
Jared Goff (0.090)
Daniel Jones (0.052)
Drake Maye (0.046)
Kyler Murray (0.028)
Matthew Stafford (0.001)
Carson Wentz finished 24th, while McCarthy landed near the bottom at 35th. That gap matters, because Minnesota wasn’t just lacking splash plays - it was failing at the basic execution that makes an offense function.
PFF put it this way: “Removing the extraordinary,” as PFF described, “leaves a cleaner look at how quarterbacks and offenses operate within the scheme’s structure. It becomes less a study of football’s most unremarkable throws and more a study of efficiency: how consistently quarterbacks execute what’s asked of them, how offenses create production through design, and how those two elements work together to generate successful plays.”
That’s where Murray’s case gets stronger. The concerns around his fit in Kevin O’Connell’s offense have been real, especially with so much of his reputation built on big plays. But he’s also the fifth-most accurate quarterback in NFL history, and last season he was the most accurate on those zero-graded throws at 76.9%.
Minnesota is clearly chasing a blend: the easy completions, the consistent operation of the offense, and then the occasional burst of chaos that only Murray can provide. That could mean a deep back-shoulder throw one snap and a 60-yard scramble the next. It’s not exactly how things unfolded for him in Arizona, but he’s also never had a Kevin O’Connell before.
The comparison to Kirk Cousins is obvious. Cousins spent his Vikings years doing what a quarterback is supposed to do - smart throws, accurate throws, keeping the offense moving.
He wasn’t going to take over games with his legs, and he wasn’t going to turn every drive into a highlight. The problem, as Minnesota fans learned, is that there’s a limit to how far that style can carry you.
Murray can bring that same steady, Cousins-like competence while adding a layer Cousins never had. He can stretch a play, escape trouble, and hit Justin Jefferson down the sideline when everything breaks down. That’s why he went No. 1 overall in 2019, and it’s why the Vikings are hoping he can finally make that draft status mean something in Minnesota.
McCarthy, and to a degree Wentz, couldn’t consistently keep the offense moving in 2025. McCarthy flashed at times, but a 57% completion rate and 12 interceptions in 10 games weren’t enough to stabilize anything.
Maybe he’ll be better in 2026. But until he proves he can keep the machine running, Murray is the one in charge.
If the Vikings are going to get back to the playoffs in 2026, the path is pretty clear: fewer turnovers, more efficiency, and a return to the basic, boring details that good offenses handle without thinking twice.
With Murray, the offense may not become a top-five monster. But it should stop falling apart on itself. For Minnesota, that alone would be a welcome change.
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