Kevin O’Connell enters Sunday’s game against Green Bay in a place almost no fifth-year head coach has reached without a playoff win on the board. He is the first coach to make it to Year 5 with the same team and no postseason victory since Jay Gruden, who was fired midway through his sixth season in Washington in 2019.
That alone makes O’Connell’s run in Minnesota unusual. It becomes even more striking when you stack it next to the recent coaching cycle.
Mike McDaniel, hired in 2022 like O’Connell, was dismissed by Miami this offseason after four years and no playoff wins, even after guiding the Dolphins to two postseason appearances. Matt Nagy managed the Bears to the playoffs twice, but never won once he got there and was let go after the 2021 season.
O’Connell has lasted because the regular-season production has been strong enough to buy him time. He is 43-25 in the regular season, which puts him at 23rd all time in NFL winning percentage at 63.2 percent.
That mark sits just behind Andy Reid and ahead of Sean Payton and Mike Tomlin. Minnesota also produced top-six passing offenses in 2022 and 2024, and O’Connell’s ability to steady the team late last season - after an ugly start that still ended with five straight wins and a 9-8 record - only strengthened the case that he has built something real.
That’s why Vikings president and co-owner Mark Wilf said in January that the team had “tremendous confidence” in O’Connell and added, “He’s done an excellent job as our head coach,” even as the organization moved on from general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah after a 4-8 start to the 2025 season and a missed playoff berth.
Still, O’Connell is not above the criticism that came with Minnesota’s collapse. His role in the season’s unraveling starts with the quarterback situation, which never settled.
J.J. McCarthy was first up, then Carson Wentz, then Max Brosmer and McCarthy alternating as McCarthy’s health dictated.
That kind of instability made elite offense hard to sustain.
But the Vikings’ defense was good enough to keep the season from sliding the way it did. Seven of the top nine defenses by estimated points added made the playoffs in 2025, according to NFElo, and Minnesota and Cleveland were the two exceptions. The Vikings’ defensive estimated points added of -0.0977 was the best by any non-playoff team since the 2022 New England Patriots.
The problem was that the defense kept getting dragged down by special teams mistakes and an offense that pushed too hard for too long. Minnesota led the league with 30 turnovers last year. During the 4-8 start, O’Connell called pass plays 61 percent of the time, fifth most in the NFL through the end of November.
The finish told a different story. Over the final five weeks, Minnesota’s run-pass splits looked like this:
Win over Washington: 34 runs, 23 passes
Win over Dallas: 28 runs, 24 passes
Win over the Giants: 31 runs, 23 passes
Win over Detroit: 28 runs, 16 passes
Win over Green Bay: 31 runs, 31 passes
After the Christmas win over Detroit, in which Brosmer threw for 51 yards, O’Connell talked about complementary football and doing whatever was needed to win that week. It was a clear shift from the way Minnesota had been playing earlier in the season.
That shift matters because O’Connell has always leaned toward aggression. As a former quarterback, he wants an offense that can light up a scoreboard.
When it works, it can look electric. When it doesn’t, it can leave Minnesota in a hole.
The 2024 season offered two harsh reminders. The Vikings finished 14-3, then got blown out by the Lions and Rams in back-to-back weeks to end it.
In the regular-season finale against Detroit, Minnesota still trailed 10-9 midway through the third quarter after twice turning the ball over on downs. On those two drives, the Vikings ran eight snaps inside the Lions’ 5-yard line - six passes, five incompletions.
The next week against Los Angeles, Minnesota ran the ball 10 times for 60 yards on its first five drives but still went into halftime down 24-3. The reason was ugly: 22 pass attempts, six sacks, a fumble returned for a touchdown, another fumble on fourth down in Vikings territory and an interception. As the source put it, Minnesota scripted itself into a sinkhole.
That is the lesson hanging over O’Connell now. Winning in the postseason requires adjustment, not just firepower.
It means knowing when to lean into the passing game and when to let the defense carry the load. It means being able to change with the game, the opponent and the health of the roster.
O’Connell said this week that the four years leading up to this season have taught him plenty. “I think that’s one of the things that … I probably am so appreciative about the experience of the four years leading up to this year,” he said.
“Because you’ve got to learn some things, just how you approach trying to win one game every Sunday. And they’re all different; every weekend is a challenge schematically, personnel-wise, where your team’s at from a health standpoint, where your team’s at at certain positions.”
He said the bigger lesson is about stripping everything down to the only thing that really counts. “Ultimately, all we’re tasked with doing is trying to win a game for 60 minutes every week,” O’Connell said.
“It sounds like a cliché until you learn (that) it doesn’t matter what the stat box looks like. It doesn’t matter what an EPA looks like.
“You learn that none of those other things matter, because winning is the only thing that matters.
“That’s what we were able to learn as a team (late last season). But, most importantly, probably me … figuring out different ways to win, however we had to.”
For O’Connell, that is the real test now. He has the trust of ownership.
He has the résumé of a successful regular-season coach. What he still has to show is that the lesson stuck when it matters most.
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