NFL QB Rankings After Week 14: J.J. McCarthy Shines, But the Numbers Still Don’t Favor Him
Week 14 gave us a glimpse of what J.J. McCarthy could be.
The rookie quarterback put together the best game of his young career, tossing three touchdowns in a dominant 31-0 win over the Washington Commanders. It was a statement performance-at least on the surface-and it helped keep the Minnesota Vikings’ razor-thin playoff hopes alive.
But when you dig into the numbers, one good game against the league’s worst pass defense doesn’t erase a season’s worth of struggles. McCarthy finally logged enough snaps to qualify for the NFL’s quarterback efficiency rankings, and while he’s no longer invisible in the data, he’s still sitting at the bottom of the list.
Let’s break it down using two of the most revealing metrics in quarterback evaluation: Expected Points Added (EPA) and Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE). These stats, compiled via NFL’s Next Gen Stats and visualized by RBSDM.com, give us a composite score that reflects how much value a quarterback adds on each play-and how often he’s making throws that go beyond what’s expected.
We’ve got 34 quarterbacks with at least 224 plays under their belt. Here’s how they stack up as the playoff race heats up.
Tier I: The Deep Ball Kings
1. Drake Maye, Patriots (0.204 EPA+CPOE)
2. Jordan Love, Packers (0.190)
These two have been the most efficient quarterbacks in football this season, and they’ve done it while leading their teams to the top of their divisions. Maye’s deep ball has been lethal, and Love’s growth continues to pay dividends in Green Bay. Still, both have had head-scratching losses-proof that even elite QB play can’t solve everything in this league.
Tier II: Big Performances, Small Margins
3. Sam Darnold, Seahawks (0.172)
4. Josh Allen, Bills (0.167)
5. Matthew Stafford, Rams (0.150)
Stafford looked like vintage Stafford again, carving up the Cardinals with three touchdowns and zero turnovers. Allen reminded everyone why he’s still one of the most dangerous weapons in football, engineering a comeback win over the Bengals.
And Darnold, after a brief slump, steadied the ship with a win over Atlanta. Not perfect, but trending in the right direction.
Tier III: Strong Seasons, Playoff Questions
6. Dak Prescott, Cowboys (0.144)
7. Daniel Jones, Colts (0.139)
8. Jared Goff, Lions (0.134)
9. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (0.128)
10. Mac Jones, 49ers (0.127)
This is where things get complicated. Prescott and Goff have played well, but their teams are in tight postseason races.
Mahomes, meanwhile, is facing the rare challenge of carrying a struggling Chiefs offense. Houston’s defense gave him fits in Week 14, dropping Kansas City’s playoff odds to just 10%.
Mac Jones had been enjoying a resurgence in San Francisco before a torn Achilles ended his season. And while Brock Purdy hasn’t played enough snaps to qualify, his 0.150 composite would put him in the top five-further proof that Kyle Shanahan’s system is still quarterback-friendly.
Tier IV: Trending Up, But Not There Yet
**11. C.J.
Stroud, Texans (0.104)**
**12.
Jaxson Dart, Giants (0.098)**
**13.
Marcus Mariota, Commanders (0.097)**
**14.
Jalen Hurts, Eagles (0.095)**
**15.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens (0.095)**
This group is a mixed bag of promise and frustration. Hurts and Jackson, two of the league’s best dual-threat QBs, have seen their rushing efficiency shift dramatically. Hurts’ EPA on runs has dropped significantly from last year’s Super Bowl run, while Jackson’s has climbed-but he’s scrambling less than ever.
Dart, meanwhile, is running like a linebacker disguised as a quarterback-his EPA per run is a staggering 0.43. Mariota is putting up solid numbers despite Washington’s chaos, and Stroud continues to show flashes of brilliance in Houston.
Tier V: The Middle of the Pack
16. Jacoby Brissett, Cardinals (0.085)
17. Justin Herbert, Chargers (0.078)
18. Aaron Rodgers, Steelers (0.074)
19. Bo Nix, Broncos (0.072)
20. Spencer Rattler, Saints (0.060)
21. Michael Penix Jr., Falcons (0.060)
22. Bryce Young, Panthers (0.058)
23. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (0.055)
24. Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (0.051)
25. Jayden Daniels, Commanders (0.047)
26. Caleb Williams, Bears (0.043)
27. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (0.043)
This is the tier where context matters. Lawrence and Williams have both improved steadily, even if the numbers don’t fully reflect it.
Lawrence has cleaned up the turnovers, helping Jacksonville take control of the AFC South. Williams still struggles with downfield accuracy-his -8 CPOE is worst in the league-but he continues to make big plays when it counts.
Rattler edges out Tyler Shough in the Saints’ QB room, and Brissett has been a stabilizing force in Arizona, even if it hasn’t translated into wins. Daniels was thrown back into the fire against the Vikings, and it showed. The Commanders’ QB development issues remain very real.
Tier VI: Progress, But Still Painful
28. Tyler Shough, Saints (0.027)
29. Geno Smith, Raiders (0.027)
30. Joe Flacco, Bengals (0.025)
31. Justin Fields, Jets (0.023)
32. Cam Ward, Titans (0.000)
Ward escapes the bottom tier thanks to some modest improvement. He’s still struggling, but considering the talent gap around him, avoiding sacks and surviving the Browns’ pass rush is a small victory in itself.
Tier VII: Rock Bottom
33. Dillon Gabriel, Browns (-0.017)
**34. J.J.
McCarthy, Vikings (-0.017)**
Yes, McCarthy just had the best game of his career. Yes, he threw three touchdown passes and didn’t turn the ball over.
And yet, here he is-still sitting dead last in the quarterback rankings. His composite score ties with Gabriel for the lowest in the league among qualifying QBs.
It’s a reminder that one good game doesn’t erase a season of misfires. The bright side? He’s trending up, and with a few more performances like Week 14, he could start climbing out of the basement.
Final Thoughts
As the playoff picture sharpens, the quarterback landscape remains as unpredictable as ever. Some veterans are fading, some rookies are rising, and a few QBs are still trying to prove they belong. For McCarthy, the road ahead is long-but Week 14 offered a glimpse of what’s possible when things finally click.