Two years ago, after a tough Week 2 loss to the Eagles, T.J. Hockenson sat at his locker, visibly drained.
Grass-stained uniform, tired eyes, but still holding onto belief. “0-2, it’s a tough way to start,” he said. “But there’s a lot of football ahead of us.”
At that moment, the Vikings were clinging to optimism-something that’s easy to say, but historically hard to justify.
Since 1990, only four teams that started 0-3 have made the playoffs. None of them reached the Super Bowl.
When the Chargers edged out the Vikings in Week 3, dropping Minnesota to 0-3, the odds weren’t just long-they were nearly impossible. And while the front office made some midseason moves-bringing in Dalton Risner and Cam Akers-it was already an uphill climb.
Then came the gut punches: non-contact injuries to Justin Jefferson in Week 5 and Kirk Cousins in Week 8. That was the season’s tipping point.
Joshua Dobbs brought a spark, but there’s only so much magic to go around.
The Vikings didn’t tank that year. They pushed forward.
But in doing so, they played themselves out of a shot at Drake Maye-a quarterback who would go on to lead the Patriots to the Super Bowl this season. It’s a classic case of short-term competitiveness costing long-term opportunity.
Tanking is one of the most polarizing topics in football. It’s not just a strategy-it’s a philosophical divide.
Ownership and front offices may see the value in bottoming out for a top draft pick, especially when a franchise quarterback is on the line. But try telling that to a locker room full of players grinding through injuries, fighting for contracts, and trying to extend careers that often don’t make it past three or four years.
Coaches, too, know that losing seasons-intentional or not-can stick to their résumés like glue.
The Vikings, as an organization, have made their stance clear. Brian Flores, now their defensive coordinator, is suing his former team, the Dolphins, over alleged pressure to tank.
GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has called the very idea “unconscionable.” Ownership wants to be “super competitive” every year.
That mindset is admirable-but it comes with consequences.
And 2023 might’ve been the ideal year to embrace the tank. The Vikings could’ve shut Jefferson down after his hamstring injury.
They could’ve moved on from Cousins and leaned into a rebuild. Instead, they tried to thread the needle-remaining competitive while navigating a roster with major question marks at quarterback.
Fast forward to the offseason: the Vikings were staring down a decision at QB. Sam Darnold was coming off a career-best year-4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, 12 picks.
Franchise-tagging him would’ve cost $40 million, a steep price, but not outrageous for a bridge quarterback. Darnold likely would’ve beaten out rookie J.J.
McCarthy in camp, giving McCarthy time to develop behind the scenes. If Darnold faltered, McCarthy steps in.
If Darnold thrived, the Vikings could explore trade options or ride the hot hand. That’s what optionality looks like-having multiple viable paths forward.
But Darnold’s last two outings changed the equation. In Week 18 against the Lions, he looked overwhelmed-18-of-41 for just 166 yards in a 31-9 loss.
In the Wild Card round against the Rams, he was better statistically-25-of-40, 245 yards, a touchdown, and a pick-but the nine sacks told the real story. The pocket presence wasn’t there, and the confidence looked shaky.
For Adofo-Mensah, a GM with a background in analytics and Wall Street trading, those two games could’ve been viewed as statistical noise. Outliers.
But for head coach Kevin O’Connell, the decision may have been more about long-term development. Darnold’s mechanics broke down under pressure, reverting to some of the bad habits he picked up during rough stints with the Jets and Panthers.
O’Connell wanted a clean slate. Enter J.J.
McCarthy-the ultimate blank canvas.
The Vikings went all-in on their vision. But the 2024 season didn’t go according to plan.
Dobbs had a brief moment of magic, but it ended with a brutal throw that left Justin Jefferson vulnerable in Las Vegas. Minnesota lost six of its final seven games and missed the playoffs.
They had won just enough to miss out on Drake Maye, and instead landed McCarthy. The rookie struggled, as most do, and the growing pains were real.
Ironically, O’Connell and Adofo-Mensah may have leaned too far into their own strengths. O’Connell is a quarterback whisperer-he helped turn Cousins into a winner and gave Darnold a second life.
But asking McCarthy, a 23-year-old rookie, to elevate a team that had once won 14 games? That was a tall order.
Meanwhile, Adofo-Mensah had previously struck gold in free agency, but this year’s class didn’t deliver.
Now, as the Super Bowl looms, Sam Darnold and Drake Maye are preparing to face off on football’s biggest stage. And the Vikings-despite a forward-thinking front office and an offensive-minded head coach-still haven’t won a playoff game since 2022.
The takeaway? Sometimes, it’s okay to take a step back in order to leap forward.
Tanking isn’t about giving up-it’s about recognizing when a season is lost and maximizing the return. It’s about embracing flexibility, keeping options open, and not getting locked into a single path.
Because in the NFL, even the best-laid plans can unravel in a hurry.