The Twins’ rotation has become a mess at exactly the wrong time.
With the Wild Card race tightening, Minnesota’s starters have been too uneven over the last 30 days, posting a 5.06 ERA - third-worst in the American League. The group is at least working deep into games, averaging 5 ⅓ innings per start, but that hasn’t kept the damage from piling up. Too many balls are being hit hard, too many runners are reaching, and too many of them are coming around to score.
That last part is the most alarming. Minnesota’s staff has the lowest LOB% rate in the league at 66.3, a sign that the trouble is sticking. Once opponents get on, the Twins haven’t been able to consistently erase the threat with an out at the right time, whether that’s because of the defense or the pitching itself.
And the bigger issue is obvious: since Joe Ryan landed on the injured list, there hasn’t been a clear answer for who’s supposed to take charge of the rotation.
Taj Bradley has the raw talent to be that guy. Bailey Ober has the veteran profile that usually comes with that responsibility.
But neither has really seized the job. Instead, the most dependable arms in this stretch have been the ones few would have circled first - Dean Kremer and Zebby Matthews.
Kremer has quietly delivered his best work since joining the Twins at the trade deadline. Over his last four starts this month, he has put up 0.4 fWAR and a 3.98 xFIP, while averaging more than five innings.
The velocity tweaks appear to be helping, and the cutter has re-emerged as one of his best weapons. He’s also missing bats at a much better clip, with a 40.0 whiff% rate that nearly doubles what he posted last year with the Orioles, when he sat at 24.2%.
Bradley remains the most intriguing arm in the group, and maybe the hardest to pin down. The stuff is there - especially the velocity - but when he can’t keep hitters on the back foot, the rest of the package can get exposed. In his last five starts, hitters have averaged 1.01 HR/9 against him, and his .333 BABIP stands out for a pitcher averaging 97 mph on the fastball.
Ober’s problems look different, but the result has been just as damaging. He isn’t handing out many walks, yet he also isn’t striking out enough hitters to escape when contact turns loud.
Minnesota’s starters as a whole are limiting contact to 76.2%, but Ober is at 80.6%. He also ranks in the 9th percentile in strikeouts, 10th in barrels allowed and 11th in whiffs.
Matthews has shown the most encouraging signs, and maybe the clearest path to something better. He’s on a 4-0 run across five starts, and his strikeout rate plus his 6.8 K/BB mark are the best in the group.
Still, the power risk is real. His 20.0 HR/FB% rate has been a problem, and hitters have taken advantage of mistakes all year.
Matthews has allowed at least one home run with each of his six pitch types this season, including five against both the four-seam fastball and the slider, and at least multiple homers against every pitch except the slider.
Connor Prielipp has had the roughest overall profile. His strikeout rate has jumped in a noticeable way, and he’s getting more ground balls, but the home run problem is severe. His 21.7 HR/FB% rate is the highest on the staff, and after holding opponents to a .290 xSLG in July, they’ve hit .622 this month.
If the Twins still want to chase a postseason spot, the rotation needs answers fast.
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