The Rays have turned Griffin Jax into a starter and gotten real results, but that hasn’t changed the bigger picture for Minnesota. The Twins may still have the better end of the deal, and Jax’s latest elbow issue could make that case even stronger.
Tampa Bay moved the former Twins right-hander into the rotation in late April, and he’s handled the job well. In 82 2/3 innings, Jax has put up a 3.16 ERA with a 26.9% strikeout rate and a 6.9% walk rate. Even with that success, Minnesota’s side of the trade looks awfully strong because Taj Bradley has been one of the Twins’ best starters behind Joe Ryan and remains under team control through 2029.
Bradley has logged 131 2/3 innings for Minnesota this season and owns a 3.76 ERA with 2.1 fWAR. Jax, meanwhile, has been worth 1.1 fWAR in 2026 and is scheduled to reach free agency after the 2027 season, though the looming lockout adds another layer of uncertainty about how much baseball might actually be played next year.
The Rays just put Jax on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to Aug. 6, because of discomfort in his right elbow. MLB.com's Luke Olson reported that Jax believes the worst-case scenario has been avoided.
Kevin Cash said the injury appears to be “ non-ligament-related. ” Jax is set to see a doctor for further testing.
That at least suggests he may have avoided a UCL tear, but elbow injuries have a way of becoming much messier than they first seem. The Twins had their own reminder of that in late April, when they placed right-handed starter Mick Abel on the injured list with right elbow inflammation.
What sounded minor at the time eventually turned into multiple setbacks and arthroscopic surgery, and Abel is now most likely done for the year. Jax is not Abel, but the point is clear: elbow problems can change fast.
If Jax winds up missing real time, it will only strengthen the argument that Minnesota came out ahead in the Bradley trade. And that deal is just one example of the Twins doing well against Tampa Bay in recent years.
Minnesota also landed Joe Ryan from the Rays for half a season of Nelson Cruz, and Ryan has been one of the best pitchers in baseball when he’s right. More recently, the Twins picked up right-handed reliever Yoendrys Gómez from Tampa Bay for cash in May, and he has responded with a 1.80 ERA, 15 saves and 37 strikeouts in 35 innings.
Jax still has a chance to come back and help the Rays chase a title this season, and he could matter for them again in 2027 if the season happens. But for now, Minnesota has every reason to feel good about getting Bradley, especially with control of him through 2029.
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