The Twins’ trade deadline calculus may be about more than the standings.
Minnesota opens a six-game homestand Friday night, and the on-field task is straightforward enough: handle the Athletics and Royals, both of whom are struggling. Off the field, though, the front office is staring at a deadline that could push the club in either direction. The Twins are 2.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox for the American League Wild Card spot, but their 51-53 record leaves them in that awkward middle ground where buying and selling both make sense.
That’s where Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers come in. Both sit near the center of the Twins’ trade conversation, but SKOR North’s Phil Mackey raised a different possibility on an episode of The SKOR North Twins Show: a potential salary floor in the next collective bargaining agreement could make it smarter for Minnesota to keep both players.
said on an episode of The SKOR North Twins Show. “...It would be up to Jeffers if he’d want to re-sign here as a free agent and you gotta be careful with a 29-year-old catcher, but he’s one of the first guys I would look at and say ‘All right, here’s a three-year contract, we’ve gotta spend it somewhere,’ and it would be a perfect bridge until your top-three overall pick catcher [Vahn Lackey] comes into the equation.”
That idea lines up with MLB’s latest CBA proposal, which includes a $245.3 million cap and a $171.2 million floor per team. Cot’s Baseball contracts lists the Twins at a year-end 40-man roster payroll of $109.4 million, which means they would need to add $61.8 million just to reach the floor next season.
The MLB Players Association has pushed back hard because of the hard cap, but a salary floor still looks likely to be part of the next agreement. If that happens, Minnesota will have to spend somewhere.
One obvious place would be Jeffers. He’s hitting .284/.392/.541 with nine homers and 32 RBI in 44 games this season, production that has pushed him into the upper tier of offensive catchers.
That kind of output could put him in line for one of the biggest catcher contracts in the sport when he reaches free agency next winter, possibly something in the neighborhood of the $17.5 million per season the St. Louis Cardinals gave Willson Contreras in a five-year, $87.5 million deal in 2022.
Ryan would be the other big-ticket route. The right-hander is coming off his second straight All-Star appearance and will be among the top pitchers on the market when he reaches free agency after the 2027 season.
The Twins still control him for another year, and trading him could maximize his value. But there’s also a path to keeping him via an extension worth roughly $25 million per season.
If Minnesota held onto both Ryan and Jeffers and paid them, that would account for $42.5 million in spending, a meaningful chunk of the money needed to get closer to the floor. It would also mean investing in players the Twins already know instead of trying to patch the roster with salary dumps from other clubs, while keeping the current core together during a playoff push.
Still, there are real reasons the Twins might choose a different route.
Ryan will turn 31 in his final year of team control, and a five-year deal would carry him through his age-36 season. A shorter contract could be possible, but only if Ryan is willing to accept it, and that could leave both sides stuck.
Jeffers presents a different kind of question. He’s clearly better than Victor Caratini and Alex Jackson, but Minnesota has already used the third overall pick on catcher Vahn Lackey and also has Eduardo Tait, who is still finding his way as a teenager at High-A Cedar Rapids.
Moving both players would not be a great look if the Twins are still in the race at the deadline, but it could fit a longer-term roster plan and help finish the kind of construction Derek Falvey started at last year’s deadline.
There are other ways to spend the money, too. Taj Bradley could become an extension candidate after his breakout 2026 season, and the Twins could look to lock up some of their top prospects, including Walker Jenkins and Kaelen Culpepper. The club could also use money that might have gone to Jeffers to secure Lackey if he adjusts quickly to pro ball, while there would still be room to keep current major leaguers such as Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis and Luke Keaschall.
For now, though, it all sits in the realm of possibility. The salary floor is still part of the great unknown until players and owners settle on a new collective bargaining agreement, and Minnesota may not want to build its deadline plan around something that might never materialize. Even so, it’s one more piece in a complicated decision the Twins have to make as Aug. 3 approaches.
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