The Twins’ offseason is already starting to look like a math problem, and two of the biggest numbers on the board belong to Trevor Larnach and Royce Lewis.
MLB Trade Rumors recently put out its annual arbitration projections, and for Minnesota the headline isn’t just what those players might earn - it’s what those figures could mean for the rest of the roster. Larnach is projected at $6.3 million in 2027.
Lewis comes in at $5.1 million. Neither salary is outrageous, which is exactly why these decisions are tricky.
At those prices, both players can be useful. At those prices, both can also make the rest of the offseason harder to sort out.
Larnach’s case starts with the production. FanGraphs valued his 2026 season at $17.9 million, which makes a projected $6.3 million arbitration salary look pretty manageable.
He played in 122 games in 2026 and hit .269/.352/.436 with 13 home runs, 23 doubles and a 121 OPS+, while being shielded from left-handed pitchers. Those are not the kind of numbers a club should be eager to discard.
But the fit is where things get murkier. The Twins still have to decide where Larnach belongs if they upgrade at first base, add another outfielder or give more chances to younger players.
His salary is low enough that Minnesota does not have to rush a call before the arbitration deadline, but his roster spot still matters. Last offseason, the Twins offered him arbitration hoping a trade would eventually come together, and it never did.
They also tried to move him at the trade deadline before Houston’s owner nixed the deal. Minnesota would rather not walk that path again.
Lewis brings a similar puzzle, only with more upside and more uncertainty. His projected $5.1 million salary is above the $4.3 million FanGraphs assigned to his 2026 season, so the immediate return does not look especially strong.
But that single season does not tell the whole story. From 2023 through 2025, Lewis was substantially more valuable, and the talent is still there if he can put everything together.
The issue is that the Twins have already spent enough time sorting through injuries and inconsistency, and his role is no longer as clear as it once was.
That’s why the arbitration decision matters so much. Minnesota could tender Lewis, figure the $5.1 million is workable, and hope the trade market is there.
But if the Twins go that route, they may find the market is not nearly as helpful as expected. And if Lewis stays, he does not just take up a roster spot in the abstract.
He can affect first base, infield playing time, and whether the club feels it has room for another veteran bat.
This is the part of arbitration that goes beyond simple salary comparisons. The real question is not just whether a player is worth the money.
It is whether he is worth the opportunity cost that comes with that money and that roster spot. In Lewis’ case, the answer probably is not.
The Twins have done this kind of thing before. The idea is easy enough to understand: rather than non-tender a player or let him walk away for nothing, the team offers arbitration, keeps the player’s rights and tries to line up a trade.
In theory, it gives the front office leverage. The contract is known.
The player has value. Other teams get a chance to make a deal.
But the problem shows up when the deal never comes. Kyle Farmer in 2024 is one example.
He was a veteran infielder who could help, but he also complicated the team’s efforts to create room for younger players. Larnach became another example last offseason, when Minnesota apparently valued him enough to go through arbitration but never found the trade it wanted.
That’s the danger of roster inertia: once a player is tendered, the fear of losing him for nothing can turn into a reason to keep him, even if the fit is only so-so.
For a club with a deep roster and limited payroll flexibility, that gets expensive in its own way. A $5 million or $6 million player is not a financial disaster. But if that player blocks a better fit, the cost is bigger than the contract itself.
So the Twins are staring at a familiar but delicate shuffle. There is nothing wrong with tendering arbitration to a player you would prefer to trade.
The mistake is assuming the trade will automatically happen. If Lewis is part of the plan, keep him and build around him.
If Larnach is part of the plan, give him a real role. If either one is mostly a trade chip, Minnesota has to be honest about what happens when the market does not cooperate.
That is the question that matters most. The Twins cannot make an arbitration call in November and then act like it never happened by February.
Larnach and Lewis are both talented enough to help a competitive team. Their projected salaries are reasonable.
But reasonable salaries can still lead to messy roster decisions. The two-step shuffle only works if the Twins know exactly where they want to land.
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