The Minnesota Twins went from looking like a live wild-card threat to staring at a much tougher road in a hurry.
Just last week, after sweeping the Atlanta Braves in three games, Minnesota sat in the third American League Wild Card spot at 63-65. But that cushion didn’t last. A sweep at the hands of the San Diego Padres, followed by losing two of three to the Athletics, knocked the Twins down to four games behind the Cleveland Guardians for the final Wild Card position.
The standings have tightened around them, but not in a way that helps Minnesota much. The Yankees lead the pack at 75-57, the Red Sox are right behind at 73-60, and the Guardians hold the last spot at 68-66.
The Rangers are next at 66-68, followed by the Orioles and Blue Jays, while the Mariners and Twins are both sitting at 64-70. Detroit trails further back at 62-71.
The biggest sting for Minnesota is how those losses played out. The Twins carried a 5-2 lead into the bottom of the seventh in Saturday’s 7-5 loss to the Padres, then took a 4-2 lead into the bottom of the sixth in Wednesday’s 7-4 loss to the Athletics, who are the worst team in the American League. Had Minnesota finished off those two games, it would be sitting just two games behind Cleveland instead of four.
The Guardians have also been rolling, winning their last seven games.
FanGraphs had the Twins at 39.4% playoff odds after the Braves sweep. Since then, Minnesota has dropped five of its last six and now sits at a season-low 10.6%.
That slide is reflected in the numbers across the race. The Yankees are at 100.0% postseason odds, the Red Sox at 98.4%, the Guardians at 61.8%, and the Rangers at 32.8%. The Orioles are at 16.6%, the Blue Jays at 13.4%, the Mariners at 41.3%, the Twins at 10.6%, and the Tigers at 2.4%.
The division leaders also have their own postseason outlook. The White Sox are 70-63 in the AL Central and have 77.8% postseason odds.
The Astros, at 66-67 in the AL West, sit at 45.4%. The Rays, who are 79-54 in the AL East, are locked in at 100.0%.
There is still at least a sliver of hope for Minnesota. The rest of the schedule is relatively manageable, and the Twins are set to face the Guardians in about two weeks. Even so, the math is harsh: with a 64-70 record overall, Minnesota would need to play at a 98-win pace the rest of the way just to finish .500.
And the recent skid has come with more complications. Byron Buxton is still dealing with his hip issue, and Joe Ryan remains on the injured list.
Buxton was pulled from Tuesday’s loss to the Athletics because of hip tightness, and it is not yet clear whether he will go on the IL before this weekend’s series against the White Sox. Ryan’s return timeline is also unknown.
The front office made a clear push to chase a postseason berth by adding right-handers Jeff Hoffman and Tommy Nance from the Toronto Blue Jays, left-hander A.J. Minter from the New York Mets, and right-hander Dean Kremer from the Baltimore Orioles before the trade deadline. Minnesota also called up top shortstop prospect Kaelen Culpepper as part of that push.
Even with those moves, the Twins are now sitting at a season-low in playoff odds. If Buxton needs another IL stint, Minnesota could look at top prospect Walker Jenkins as another option.
Jenkins is hitting over .400 at Triple-A St. Paul in August.
In Other News...
Twins Prospect Performances Just Put More Pressure On The Depth Chart
Luis Quiones has been sent to Fort Myers on a minor league rehab assignment, a routine step on the surface but one that still matters for a pitching staff trying to sort itself out over the long haul. Around him, the Twins minor league system has kept producing the kind of little reminders that can eventually change a depth chart, from Walker Jenkins flashing his all-around game with a home run and a stolen base to Adrian Bohorquez turning in a scoreless debut at Double-A.
For Minnesota, the larger takeaway is less about one box score and more about the steady drumbeat of useful performances across the affiliates. When prospects keep showing they can handle tougher competition, the conversation shifts quickly from development to opportunity, and that is where the pressure starts to build on the players already occupying those spots. Quiones rehab assignment adds another layer to that mix, even if the bigger picture is still unfolding. [Read more 🡒]
Walker Jenkins Decision Will Show Twins Fans What Really Changed
Walker Jenkins is doing everything a top prospect is supposed to do in Triple-A, yet the Twins still have not brought him to the majors. For a club that has already shuffled pieces around by promoting Kaelen Culpepper and adding pitching at the trade deadline, the delay says plenty about where Minnesota is trying to place its bets as the season turns toward the stretch run.
The Twins remain on the outside of the playoff race, which makes every roster decision feel more revealing than routine. Jenkins sits right at the intersection of development, service time and the clubs competitive reality, and how Minnesota handles him from here should tell fans whether the front office is leaning more toward the future or trying to squeeze every last bit out of the present. [Read more 🡒]
Twins Suddenly Face A Big Byron Buxton Decision
Byron Buxtons latest setback has put the Twins right back in familiar territory, waiting on the status of one of their most important players after he was pulled from a game because of discomfort in his right hip. For now, Minnesota has not made any roster moves, and the club was still holding off on a decision as of Wednesday while Buxtons condition is monitored.
The timing adds another layer for a team that has already spent plenty of energy managing health and depth across the roster. Joe Ryan took another step in his rehab by throwing live batting practice, while Vahn Lackey kept making noise in the system with a second straight homer after his promotion to High-A Cedar Rapids, but all eyes remain on Buxton and what the Twins decide next. [Read more 🡒]