Minnesota’s offseason spending question starts with a number that looks bigger than it really is.
Tom Pohlad said the Twins intend to invest meaningfully this winter, but he did not put a 2027 payroll figure on the record at Minnesota’s year-end news conference. That leaves the club in the familiar spot of trying to figure out how much of next year’s money is already tied up before any real shopping begins.
FanGraphs’ RosterResource has Minnesota at about $111 million for 2026, and it also shows an early 2027 payroll around $111 million. But that 2027 figure is only a starting point. It does not yet include salaries for players who have not reached arbitration, so it is not the amount the Twins can freely spend.
The guaranteed money already on the books is substantial. Pablo López is due $21.75 million in 2027, Byron Buxton about $15.14 million, Jeff Hoffman about $12.67 million and Victor Caratini $6.5 million. That comes to roughly $56.1 million before any trade-related money is counted.
And there is more baggage from the Carlos Correa trade. RosterResource has Minnesota sending $10 million to Houston in 2027, along with about $1.33 million in remaining signing-bonus obligations. Correa no longer takes up a roster spot, but those payments still count against the money the Twins can use elsewhere.
There are also possible buyouts to consider, including $1.25 million on Josh Bell’s $10 million mutual option if that option is declined.
Joe Ryan’s $13 million mutual option is another wrinkle. If either side turns it down, Ryan still remains under Minnesota’s control through arbitration. In other words, the Twins would not simply erase the pitcher’s cost by walking away from the option; they would still have to cover his projected arbitration salary.
Several other decisions are coming due as well. Ryan Jeffers, A.J.
Minter and Taylor Rogers are all on expiring deals. Jeffers made $6.7 million in 2026, Rogers $2 million.
Minter’s deal carried an $11 million salary, though Minnesota acquired him during the season, so his full 2026 salary was never a Twins expense. Bell made $5.75 million in 2026, with his mutual option still unresolved.
Those departures would create openings, but they would also create needs. Letting Jeffers go means finding a catcher.
Moving on from Minter or Rogers means replacing left-handed relief. And first base could need attention if Bell is not back.
Re-signing Jeffers, extending a qualifying offer, or bringing back either reliever would all change the math again. Simply adding the headline salaries together and calling it a spending pool would ignore both replacement costs and the arbitration raises that are already coming.
The arbitration side of the ledger is not small. RosterResource’s 2027 projections have 10 Twins combining for $47.3 million if they are retained at the estimated numbers.
Ryan leads the group at $9.6 million, followed by Bailey Ober at $6.9 million, Dean Kremer at $6.5 million and Trevor Larnach at $6.3 million. Royce Lewis, Taj Bradley and Kody Clemens account for another projected $13.2 million.
Those are estimates, not contracts, and trades or non-tenders could change the total.
RosterResource’s roughly $111 million figure already folds in those arbitration estimates, the guaranteed deals, and the payments and buyouts described above. Even then, it still does not include the rest of the roster.
Using its roster-planning approach and the 2026 minimum salary of $780,000 as a temporary guide adds another $15 million to $16 million for younger players and depth pieces. That puts a working baseline near $126 million before any outside additions, assuming all 10 arbitration-eligible players are retained and the pending mutual options are declined.
A new labor agreement could alter the minimum salary and change that estimate.
That is where Pohlad’s promise comes into focus. If Minnesota ended up at a hypothetical $140 million payroll, the Twins would have about $14 million above that baseline.
At $150 million, the cushion would be around $24 million. Neither number is a club-announced budget.
Non-tenders could open more room, while a Jeffers return, an exercised option or another trade addition would take some away.
The real point is that the Twins’ flexibility depends on ownership choosing to go higher, not on some huge pile of untouched payroll sitting there already. Pohlad’s final number, along with the option and arbitration calls that follow, will show whether Minnesota can pay for a meaningful addition and still cover the bullpen help this roster needs.
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