After the beatdown from the San Diego Padres and the Athletics, the Minnesota Twins are staring at a stretch that will tell the truth about their season. There’s no hiding in it now. The next 15 games are all against division opponents, and the way Minnesota handles them will decide whether this thing gets a late push or drifts toward the finish line.
Right now, the numbers are ugly. The Twins are 6.5 games out in the division and four games back of the third wild card spot.
FanGraphs Playoff Odds has them at less than a 5% chance to win the division and around 10% to reach the playoffs at all. That’s not much to work with, but it’s not zero - and the schedule gives them a real opening if they can actually take advantage of it.
The path starts with six games on the road against the Chicago White Sox, who have been driven by their offense all season. Since August 1st, Chicago has the third-best wRC+ in baseball, but the pitching has dragged behind and kept them around .500 in that span.
The rotation has been shaky all year, and even after bringing in Luis Castillo at the trade deadline, the results have been underwhelming: a 5.89 ERA and a 5.37 FIP with the White Sox. The bullpen has held up better, posting a 3.83 ERA over that same stretch.
Chicago also has a relatively friendly path beyond Minnesota, with games left against the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers, plus softer matchups with the Kansas City Royals, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, and Pittsburgh Pirates.
That makes a collapse feel unlikely. For the Twins, these six games are a chance to put pressure on the division leader - and maybe even close the door.
Detroit is next, and that series carries a different kind of urgency. The Tigers are only a game and a half behind Minnesota, so they’re in this race too, at least on paper.
But they sold hard at the deadline, dealing away their top two frontline starters, and somehow they’ve stayed afloat. They’re just three games below .500 in August, even with an offense that hasn’t clicked and a bullpen that has been unreliable all year.
If the Twins are going to make this push real, they probably need something close to a 5-1 showing against Detroit.
The Tigers’ upcoming slate isn’t doing them any favors either. They have three games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, four against the Cleveland Guardians, and then six against the Twins over the next two weeks. By the time that run ends, Detroit’s season could be hanging by the same thread as Minnesota’s - or already gone.
Then comes Cleveland, one of the clubs Minnesota has to climb past in either the division chase or the wild card race. The Twins get only three games against the Guardians the rest of the way, so every inning in that series matters.
And this is not the same Cleveland team that was trudging along earlier in the year. The offense has come alive since the deadline, with Jo Adell and Nathaniel Lowe added to the lineup, and the group has jumped from one of the least productive in baseball before the deadline to a top-5 offense in August.
The Guardians have backed that up on the mound too. Their starters and relievers have combined for a 3.78 ERA and a 4.34 FIP, and yet they still sit just one game above .500 despite a favorable August schedule.
The catch for Minnesota is that Cleveland’s own path looks soft from here: six games against the Royals, three against the Tigers, three against the Orioles, and three against the Athletics, in addition to those three meetings with the Twins. There isn’t much reason to expect the Guardians to stumble on their own.
That’s why the head-to-head games are so important. Minnesota can’t wait for help.
The margin for error is gone, and the Twins probably need to win at least two out of every three games during this stretch just to keep the season breathing. A 10-5 run against these division foes still wouldn’t put them in control, but it would keep the door open heading into the final weeks.
In Other News...
Twins Just Gave Up On A Once-Intriguing Arm For Walker Jenkins
Walker Jenkins is headed back onto the Twins active roster after Minnesota selected the outfielders contract and sent Alan Roden to Triple-A St. Paul to make room. It is another sign of how aggressively the club is trying to manage its young talent, especially with Jenkins drawing enough attention to earn a major league look again.
The move also cost Woo-Suk Go his spot on the 40-man roster after the right-hander was designated for assignment following control issues in St. Paul. Go had already made his big league debut with Minnesota after arriving from the Tigers, and now his future hinges on waivers, with a possible free-agent decision waiting if he gets through. [Read more 🡒]
Blue Jays May Be About To Lose A Former Top Prospect
A roster move out of Toronto has put a familiar name in limbo, and it may not stay a Blue Jays issue for long. The club recalled right-hander CJ Van Eyk and designated Simeon Woods Richardson for assignment, a sign of how quickly the pitching picture can change when a former top prospect is running out of runway. Woods Richardson has struggled lately, and the move clears a spot while also forcing the organization to confront a tough decision on a pitcher once viewed as part of the future.
Because Woods Richardson is out of minor league options, the next step is more complicated than a routine shuffle. He will have to pass through waivers, and any team that claims him would need to keep him on a major league roster, which is why a number of clubs with pitching needs will at least have to take a look. If he goes unclaimed, free agency becomes the fallback, leaving Toronto with another reminder of how thin the margin can be for young arms still trying to establish themselves. [Read more 🡒]
Former Twins Starter Is Back In Roster Limbo Again
Simeon Woods Richardson is back in an all-too-familiar spot after the Blue Jays designated the former Twins starter for assignment, a move that once again leaves his immediate big-league future unsettled. The right-hander had worked out of Torontos bullpen this season, making eight relief appearances and logging a 3.93 ERA over 18.1 innings, a brief stretch that kept him on the roster but never fully settled his role.
For Minnesota fans, it is another reminder of a pitcher whose career has already taken plenty of turns since he was originally drafted by the Mets and later spent time with the Twins before heading back to Toronto. Now the question is whether another team sees enough in his arm to claim him, or whether he is headed into another round of roster limbo while the Blue Jays sort out their next move. [Read more 🡒]