The Minnesota Twins’ rotation puzzle is bigger than simply filling out five spots for Opening Day. Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Dean Kremer, and Bailey Ober are all on track to hit free agency after 2027 based on their current contract timelines, and that creates a decision tree the club can’t treat as one-size-fits-all.
Minnesota needs to sort those arms by priority, then decide how much it’s willing to pay to keep each one around. Health, expected workload, and the cost of replacing innings all have to factor in. The simplest move this winter would be to keep everyone who’s available, but that would only buy time - it wouldn’t solve the looming turnover.
Ryan belongs at the top of the list. He finished 2026 with a 3.79 ERA and 159 strikeouts in 144.2 innings, the kind of production the Twins would have a hard time simply going out and finding again.
His $13 million mutual option matters, too, but not in the way it might first appear. As the Twins’ contract tracker explained, declining it would leave him under arbitration control for 2027, so an option call would not automatically send him to the open market.
That’s why the Twins should be thinking bigger with Ryan. The best path is to talk about an extension that buys out more years beyond the control they already have.
At the same time, the club has to know its limit before negotiations start. If the price gets too high, keeping him for one more season could still be worthwhile even without a longer agreement.
Kremer comes next. Minnesota got a useful stretch from him after he arrived from the Baltimore Orioles, as he posted a 3.48 ERA over 10 starts and 54.1 innings with the team.
His full-season ERA sat at 4.68, so the strong finish should be viewed in the larger context of his year. Even so, a shorter-term extension could make sense if the Twins want to lock in dependable innings while younger pitchers continue to develop.
That decision should come down to cost versus alternatives.
Lopez is a different case, and not just because of his place in the rotation. His current deal runs through 2027, and his recovery from Tommy John surgery hangs over the conversation.
MLB’s October assessment pointed to the uncertainty around what he’ll look like when he returns. The Twins should wait for more information on his rehab and on his effectiveness before making any substantial commitment beyond the current deal.
That leaves Ober fourth in the pecking order. Minnesota should take a hard look at his trade market while also trying to determine whether he fits as a regular starter in the rotation it wants to build.
The key is clarity. Letting his remaining control run down without a plan would be a mistake.
A trade only makes sense if the return, along with the rest of the pitching picture, justifies it.
The Twins do have younger names in the mix - Taj Bradley, Connor Prielipp and Zebby Matthews - but those arms shouldn’t blur the individual calls on the veterans. Minnesota’s best outcome is to secure at least one established starter beyond 2027 while still leaving space for that next wave to grow.
The clock is ticking on four starters, but that doesn’t mean four exits. It means the Twins need order, discipline and a real plan for what comes next.
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The bigger question now is whether the Twins decide to listen if the right offer comes along, especially with clubs around the league still searching for starting pitching. San Francisco has emerged as a logical match because of its need and its farm system assets, but for Minnesota the debate goes beyond one possible trade partner. It is about whether Ryans value is at its peak now, or whether keeping him for another season is worth the risk if the second half trends that have followed him begin to carry more weight. [Read more 🡒]
Yasser Mercedes Is Forcing A Twins Decision That Could Cost Depth
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The bigger question is how aggressively the Twins want to protect that depth. Mercedes is squarely in the conversation because the club has to balance keeping him out of other teams hands with preserving his development path in the minors, and the AFL is giving him a final chance to strengthen that argument. His standing will keep depending on both how he plays and whether the Rule 5 draft even goes forward under the current labor setup. [Read more 🡒]