The Twins may be about to finish a season without a single 3-WAR player, and that’s the kind of number that says plenty all by itself.
WAR isn’t an exact science, but the rough ladder is easy enough to read. Zero means replacement level.
One is a below-average regular or a useful part-timer. Two is an average regular.
Three to four is where you get into very good, above-average everyday players. Five and up is All-Star territory.
For Minnesota, the 3-WAR mark has usually been a pretty good barometer of whether the roster has real bite. In 2019, the 101-win Twins had seven players clear it: Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, José Berríos and Jake Odorizzi.
Since the COVID season, the Twins have had multiple 3-WAR players every year. Before that, you have to go back to 2011 to find a full season in which they finished with none - and that year spiraled into a 99-loss disaster.
Now they’re staring at that same possibility again. With fewer than three weeks left, nobody on the roster has reached 3 WAR in FanGraphs’ calculation. Entering Tuesday, the top of the board looked like this:
Ryan Jeffers: 2.8
Byron Buxton: 2.6
Joe Ryan: 2.6
Brooks Lee: 2.5
Luke Keaschall: 2.3
Kody Clemens: 2.2
Taj Bradley: 2.1
Trevor Larnach: 2.0
Jeffers could still get there with a strong finish, and it’s also possible someone else makes a late push. But the bigger point is hard to miss: this could end up as the first full season since 2011 with no Twins player at 3 WAR or better, and that tracks with the way the year has unfolded.
The highest-end talent was never really available long enough. Buxton, Ryan and Jeffers all spent time on the path to something much bigger, with each of them tracking toward that 5-WAR, All-Star-caliber tier.
Two of them were All-Stars. Jeffers, who missed two months after a May injury, almost certainly would have joined them.
But the second half changed everything. Buxton and Ryan have each been below replacement since the break, and both had already crossed 3 WAR before their seasons went sideways.
For the players who did stay on the field, nobody quite separated. Bradley is probably the closest thing Minnesota had to a steady standout, though his 3.95 ERA and 4.02 FIP point to a pitcher who has been more good than great. Baseball Reference is more bullish on him, giving him a staff-best 3.1 bWAR.
Elsewhere, the profile is a lot flatter. Keaschall has provided a solid bat, but his defense has dragged him down.
Lee and Clemens have been roughly average offensively, with very low on-base numbers cutting into the value their power has supplied. Royce Lewis has set a career high with 109 games played and still sits at just one win above replacement.
That matters because the Twins are going to need a different shape to the roster if they want to be back in the mix next year. A lineup built around Lee, Clemens, Lewis and Victor Caratini as core pieces doesn’t look like a safe bet.
Keaschall could still take a meaningful step if the defensive side steadies up. And the organization is banking on young names like Kaelen Culpepper and Walker Jenkins becoming first-division players quickly.
But that’s a lot to ask if there aren’t veteran anchors carrying more of the load.
The problem gets even sharper when you look at the players who have come closest to 3 WAR this season. Jeffers is heading for free agency and all but certain to land elsewhere.
Buxton is facing the possibility of serious offseason hip surgery and turns 33 in December. Ryan, in my opinion, is very likely to be traded, provided he finishes the season smoothly.
So the Twins are left with the same question heading into 2027: who actually steps forward and puts together a full, excellent season? They’re going to need more than one answer.
At the simplest level, baseball still comes down to this: your best players have to be your best players, and they have to stay on the field. Minnesota never got that combination this year. That’s how a team winds up stuck with a losing record and nowhere near real contention.
In Other News...
Twins Face A Real Derek Shelton Debate After A Year Of Change
Derek Sheltons first season in the Twins dugout has already given the organization plenty to consider as it weighs the next step. After a year of change, Shelton has been judged not just on wins and losses, but on how he handled player development, navigated late-game decisions and fit into a club still adjusting to life after Rocco Baldelli.
Some of the signs have been encouraging, especially with several players taking clear steps forward and the pitching staff being managed in ways that looked familiar to the previous regime. Even so, the bigger question remains whether Shelton gets the chance to keep building, or whether the Twins use this uncertain stretch around the organization to make another change before his second season can even begin. [Read more 🡒]
Twins May Have Found A Rotation Piece Despite Dean Kremer's Uneven Start
The Twins took a calculated swing on Dean Kremer when they brought the right-hander over from Baltimore for outfield prospect Jhomnardo Reyes, and the early returns have looked like the kind of cautious trade value that can age well. Kremer has been uneven since the deal, carrying a 4.79 ERA across seven starts, but his 3.99 FIP suggests there has been a sturdier foundation underneath the surface results.
For Minnesota, that matters because the move was never only about the immediate stretch run. Reyes, Baltimores No. 24 prospect, has struggled in Single-A and does not look close to the big leagues, while Kremer is being viewed as the kind of rotation arm who could still matter for the Twins in 2027. The question now is whether the stuff and the underlying numbers keep trending in the right direction long enough for Minnesota to bank on him as more than just a stopgap. [Read more 🡒]
Twins May Be Heading For A Tough Ryan Jeffers Decision
Ryan Jeffers has become one of the more interesting names in the Twins offseason picture, and not just because of what he has done at the plate this year. The catchers strong offensive season has raised his profile around the league, and if Minnesota does not bring him back, he figures to draw real attention as one of the more appealing options in a thin market.
One team to watch is Cincinnati, where CBS Sports Mike Axisa has identified the Reds as a possible landing spot if Jeffers reaches free agency. From the Twins standpoint, that kind of outside interest only sharpens the pressure on a decision that already looks complicated, since moving on would mean replacing a productive bat at a position that is rarely easy to fill. [Read more 🡒]