The Twins didn’t just lose Wednesday night in West Sacramento. They may have watched their season slip through their fingers on a ball that should have been caught.
By Thursday morning, Minnesota’s postseason odds had dropped to 7.1% in Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA-based projections, down from 31.5% a week earlier. Five losses in six games on the road trip did the damage, but the most painful one came with the team already teetering and the front office still waiting on a move that never came.
The issue has been obvious for a while: Luke Keaschall can hit, but he has been a problem in center field. The Twins already knew that from his time there while Byron Buxton was on the injured list, and they sent Keaschall back to right field once Buxton returned earlier this month. Even then, the team kept Buxton in center whenever he was healthy enough to play, because there wasn’t another real option on the active roster.
That’s why Walker Jenkins had been looming as the logical answer. So had Emmanuel Rodriguez.
Either one would have given the Twins a more credible defensive setup in center on the days Buxton couldn’t go. If Minnesota had been at home this week, Jenkins might already have been up.
Instead, the club stayed on the road for a six-game, eight-day trip through San Diego and West Sacramento, and the front office chose to avoid a roster shakeup in the middle of it. The thinking was practical enough: teams usually don’t want to turn everything upside down during a difficult trip, especially when they’re only passing through a place for a few days. The A’s temporary setup in West Sacramento only made that feel more awkward.
Then Buxton pulled up lame Tuesday night, and the whole plan got ugly fast. The Twins knew he wouldn’t be available Wednesday, which left them with a choice: rush Jenkins or Rodriguez in and send them out almost immediately after, or patch things together for one more game.
They went with the patch job. Keaschall started in center.
It was the kind of decision that can look harmless in the moment. Just get through one night.
Delay the bigger move. Hope it holds.
It didn’t.
Wednesday’s rubber game turned in the bottom of the sixth, with Minnesota clinging to a 4-3 lead. The A’s had already strung together three hits in the inning, and one fly ball had dropped well in front of Keaschall because he was positioned exceptionally deep.
With two outs and two runners on, Andrew Morris needed one more out to escape. Alika Williams sent a long fly ball to center.
Keaschall got a late read, didn’t take a clean first step, and never quite corrected enough. He still got there - basically - but he didn’t make the catch.
Statcast’s initial read gave the ball an 85% catch probability based on where Keaschall started and the hang time, though that number should move a bit once the play is fully processed because he was going back and near the wall. Even if you strip it down to a much more forgiving 50/50 play, the result is the same: he didn’t secure it, and two runs scored.
That swing changed everything. If the catch is made, Tom Tango’s win expectancy matrices give the Twins a 70% chance to win.
Once it fell, the A’s were suddenly at 73.8%. The play carried a -0.216 WPA, though official WPA only credits hitters and pitchers, not defense.
In plain English, Minnesota lost the game because its center fielder didn’t finish a play that had to be finished.
And this wasn’t some isolated blip. Keaschall has already hurt the Twins with the glove this season at second base, in right field, and on another brutal miss in center against the Brewers earlier this month, when a ball dropped in front of him in the bottom of the eighth and eventually turned into the winning run.
That’s what makes this so frustrating for Minnesota. The front office is trying to balance the present against the future, and that’s fair enough in a year when the team is not exactly built like a powerhouse.
But there’s a difference between being careful and leaving wins on the table. This was one of those spots where a call-up could have helped both now and later, without costing the organization anything long-term.
The Twins should have already brought up Jenkins. They certainly should have done it when Buxton got hurt Tuesday night. They didn’t, and now they’re left with the ugly possibility that if they miss the playoffs by one game, they’ll also be able to point to one play: a ball that should have been caught, and likely would have been, if the right player had been in center field.
In Other News...
Walker Jenkins Decision Will Show Twins Fans What Really Changed
Walker Jenkins is doing everything he can to make the conversation impossible to ignore. The Twins top prospect has been strong in Triple-A, but the club has kept him there while juggling a roster that has already seen prospect Kaelen Culpepper promoted and a handful of pitching additions come in at the trade deadline. Minnesota is still playing from behind in the playoff race, which leaves every roster move under a microscope as the team tries to weigh development against the urgency of the standings.
The eventual decision on Jenkins will say a lot about how much the Twins have changed. In a season where the front office has already shown it can mix patience with short-term upgrades, the handling of a player like Jenkins sits right at the center of that tension. Whether the club leans more toward development or the push for wins now, the choice figures to reflect just how carefully Minnesota is balancing the future against the postseason chase. [Read more 🡒]
Twins Fans Already Have One Big Concern About Walker Jenkins
Walker Jenkins is on the verge of making his way to the Twins, with the club planning to bring up the highly regarded prospect for Fridays game once it clears the necessary roster space. For a fan base that has followed his rise closely, it is the kind of long-awaited development that comes with the usual buzz around a top 20 talent, especially one whose five-tool profile has made him one of the more intriguing young players in the organization.
Still, the excitement has come with a familiar undercurrent of caution. Jenkins has missed time because of injuries, and for all the optimism about what he can become, the biggest question has never really been about the tools. It is about whether he can stay on the field long enough to turn that promise into something the Twins can count on. [Read more 🡒]
Twins Turn To Top Prospect As Buxton Faces Another Setback
Walker Jenkins is on his way from Triple-A after putting together a strong season, giving the Twins a fresh look in the middle of another stretch shaped by injuries. The timing is no surprise, either, with Minnesota needing another bat as it waits on Byron Buxton, whose latest setback has again thinned out the outfield picture.
Buxton is expected to land on the 10-day injured list because of a recurring hip issue, a frustrating development for a team that has leaned on his impact whenever he has been available. Jenkins now gets the chance to help cover that loss, and for the Twins, the hope is that the top prospect can add some offense while Buxton works his way back yet again. [Read more 🡒]