Mick Abel and the Twins: A Developmental Year Ahead for the Talented Righty
When the Minnesota Twins sent flamethrowing closer Jhoan Duran to the Phillies at the 2025 trade deadline, they weren’t just making a win-now move for Philadelphia-they were banking on the future. That future included top-100 catching prospect Eduardo Tait and right-hander Mick Abel, a former first-round pick with electric stuff and a high ceiling.
Abel got a brief look in the big leagues last season, making four appearances with the Twins after logging 25 innings with the Phillies earlier in the year. The results?
Let’s just say they were far from polished. Across both stints, Abel struggled to find consistency, finishing with an 8.36 ERA in Minnesota and a 5.04 ERA in Philadelphia.
But there’s more to the story than the surface numbers suggest.
At 24 years old, Abel remains a projectable arm with the kind of raw tools that can still translate into a reliable major-league starter. The Twins know this. And as spring training opens, the big question isn’t whether Abel can contribute in 2026-it’s how and when.
Abel’s Fastball: Power With Room to Grow
Abel leaned heavily on his four-seam fastball last season, throwing it 42% of the time. Sitting at 96 mph with above-average spin, the pitch has long been a weapon in the minors. But at the big-league level, it didn’t play nearly as well-hitters slugged a whopping .610 against it.
The pitch has the velocity and spin to succeed, especially when elevated in the zone. In fact, Abel threw his fastball up in the zone 33.5% of the time-a rate that would have led the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. That suggests both the Phillies and Twins see the potential for this pitch to become a true out-getter.
The challenge? Command and predictability.
Abel’s fastball shape is solid, particularly when you factor in his low three-quarter arm slot, but big-league hitters aren’t biting unless he can locate it more consistently and sequence it better with his secondaries. The raw ingredients are there-he just needs to cook with them more effectively.
The Curveball: Abel’s Best Weapon
While the fastball got crushed, Abel’s curveball told a very different story. Thrown 21% of the time, mostly to left-handed hitters, the curve was his most effective pitch by a wide margin. It’s a classic lefty-neutralizer-dropping in with depth and late break, often diving below the zone to induce swings and misses or weak contact.
The advanced metrics back it up. Lefties managed just a .296 expected slugging percentage and a .212 expected wOBA against the pitch. It’s not the flashiest breaking ball in baseball, but it’s deceptive and tough to square up-especially when Abel keeps it down.
The curveball is a big reason why the Twins still see Abel as a legitimate starting option. It gives him a go-to weapon against opposite-handed hitters, and when paired with a well-located fastball, it can be a nightmare for hitters trying to adjust to two-plane break.
Slider, Sinker, and Changeup: Still Works in Progress
Abel’s slider, sinker, and changeup round out a five-pitch mix, but none of the three stood out in 2025. The slider, used mostly against righties, was inconsistent in both location and effectiveness. It showed flashes, but with a .449 expected slugging percentage against it, it clearly needs refinement.
The sinker and changeup, meanwhile, were hit hard-really hard. Opponents batted .375 against the sinker and .417 against the changeup. Both pitches are still in developmental stages, and it’s clear Abel hasn’t yet found the right feel or usage patterns for them at the major-league level.
That said, the Twins aren’t asking Abel to be a finished product just yet. With only 39 big-league innings under his belt, he’s still in the early stages of figuring out how to sequence and command a deep arsenal.
The raw stuff is there. Now it’s about sharpening the edges.
Where Does He Fit in 2026?
Abel enters spring training technically in the mix for the Twins’ fifth rotation spot, alongside Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, and David Festa. But of that group, Abel has the least major-league experience and the most developmental work ahead of him. That likely puts him on the outside looking in-for now.
With two minor-league option years remaining, the Twins have the flexibility to let Abel continue growing in Triple-A. That’s probably the best path forward. He still profiles as a starter, and the Twins would be wise to keep stretching him out and refining his pitch mix in a lower-pressure environment.
That doesn’t mean Abel won’t make an impact in 2026. Injuries and performance fluctuations are inevitable over a 162-game season, and Abel is likely to get another shot at some point. But the real goal here isn’t just to plug him into the back of the rotation-it’s to develop him into a long-term piece.
With veterans like Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober potentially approaching contract crossroads, the Twins need to start grooming the next wave of rotation arms. Abel, with his pedigree and pitch mix, could be a key part of that future. But it starts with patience, reps, and continued development.
Bottom Line
Mick Abel’s first taste of the majors was rocky, but that doesn’t change the outlook. The tools are there: a mid-90s fastball with life, a curveball that can miss bats, and a full starter’s arsenal. What he needs now is time-time to refine, time to adjust, and time to grow into the pitcher the Twins believe he can be.
In 2026, that likely means a return to Triple-A to open the year. But don’t be surprised if we see Abel back in a Twins uniform before long-this time, with a clearer plan, sharper command, and a better chance to stick.