Byron Buxton has spent his entire major-league defensive life in center field, but the Twins are getting close to the point where that can’t be the only plan anymore.
Through 11 seasons and 6,721 defensive innings, Buxton has never lined up anywhere else in the big leagues. The last time he played a different spot in affiliated ball was back in 2014, when he logged 14 innings in right field at High-A.
That’s no mystery to anyone who’s watched him over the years. He’s been a special athlete from the start, with elite sprint speed and the kind of instincts that let him make late corrections on the run.
That athleticism helped him win a Platinum Glove Award in 2017, when he was arguably the rangiest center fielder of the 2010s. But the version of Buxton roaming center in 2026 isn’t the same one from his peak.
The 32-year-old is still one of the fastest players in baseball, and he still handles the routine chances. What’s changing is the territory he can cover.
Over the past two seasons, his defensive metrics have backed up, and he’s no longer taking away the kinds of hits that once disappeared in his glove.
Buxton is still playable in center. He has 3 Outs Above Average over 193 attempts this season, so this is not a case of a player who can no longer stand in the middle of the outfield.
But the decline is showing in the margins, and those margins matter. He has remained excellent on balls hit in front of him and behind him, yet the work going hard to his left or right has steadily gotten tougher.
This season has been the low point.
The numbers moving laterally tell the story. Buxton has 1 OAA when ranging toward third base and 0 OAA when moving toward first.
Put those together, and his 1 OAA on lateral plays would be the worst mark of his career outside 2018, when he appeared in only 28 games. His second-worst season getting to balls hit side to side?
- That decline in gap coverage has been building for two years, and the trend points in one direction.
None of that means the Twins need to rip him out of center field tomorrow. He’s not being measured against Pete Crow-Armstrong or Ceddanne Rafaela, and Minnesota would be justified in finishing 2026 with Buxton as its primary center fielder. But the club would be smart to think ahead.
That’s where Walker Jenkins comes in. The Twins’ top prospect is already at Triple-A St.
Paul, and he looks like the organization’s best answer for what comes next. Jenkins is 21 and coming off his first extended stretch of real success against Triple-A pitching.
He’s also still a platoon issue against left-handers, with a .277 xwOBA over 80 plate appearances at Triple-A. So this is not a call for Minnesota to rush him now.
The more realistic window is 2027, when he could arrive and quickly become one of the team’s best position players.
When that day comes, the Twins should let Jenkins take over in center and move Buxton to a corner spot.
Jenkins has mostly played center at Triple-A, with 370 innings there, and he’s handled it well with no errors and solid range. Right now, Buxton may still be as good as or better than Jenkins in center.
But that gap is going to close fast. The biggest separator already is Jenkins’ arm.
Buxton’s arm value has slipped in a noticeable way. In 2026, he has a -1 Arm Value over 168 advancement attempts, which puts him in the bottom third of the league.
Runners are taking extra bases on him more often, and that problem has worsened sharply since 2024, when he was near the top of the league. Jenkins, by contrast, has one of the best arms in the minors.
That’s the kind of trait that can help define the next version of Minnesota’s outfield.
In Other News...
Joe Ryan Just Gave Twins Fans Reason To Watch September Closely
Joe Ryans road back from the injured list took a meaningful step this week, and for a Twins club that has spent plenty of time piecing together the back end of the rotation, it was the kind of update worth circling. The right-hander, who has been out with a strained left glute muscle, got back on the mound for the first time since his Aug. 4 outing and worked through a short bullpen session as he continues his recovery.
Derek Shelton called the throwing session encouraging, which is about as much as Minnesota can ask for at this stage. The larger question is still when Ryan will be ready to rejoin the staff, and for now there is no set timetable, leaving his return one of the more closely watched developments as September unfolds. [Read more 🡒]
Twins Playoff Push May Force A Big Walker Jenkins Decision
A series win over the Braves kept Minnesota at 62-65 and still hanging around the AL Central and Wild Card races, which is exactly the kind of late-summer position that forces a front office to weigh upside against patience. The Twins have enough ground to make a run and not enough margin to ignore obvious help, especially with the lineup still looking for a jolt as September approaches.
Walker Jenkins is the name sitting at the center of that decision. The top prospect has handled Triple-A well enough to make the conversation real, and a call-up would give Minnesota another bat with some defensive value if the club decides the playoff chase is worth pushing a prized young player into the mix before it is ready to do so on its own timetable. [Read more 🡒]