Jeff Hoffman’s season has been a lot better than the reaction around him suggests.
That’s the odd reality for a pitcher who still carries the scar tissue from last year’s World Series. In Game 7, with the Blue Jays up 4-3 and one out in the top of the ninth, John Schneider turned to Hoffman to finish off the Dodgers.
Miguel Rojas worked the count full, Hoffman left a slider over the middle, and the ball was launched over Toronto’s bullpen in left field. The crowd that had been on its feet waiting for the final out was left stunned, and the blowback has followed Hoffman ever since.
This season only sharpened the criticism. Hoffman opened 2026 in rough shape, posting a 6.39 ERA in April and blowing several saves before Louie Varland took over the closer role.
May didn’t help much either. But since June 1, the right-hander has been much closer to the pitcher Toronto thought it had.
Over 22.1 innings with the Blue Jays since that date, Hoffman gave up only three earned runs for a 1.22 ERA. After joining the Twins, he has allowed just two hits in his first four outings, and both came in the August 7 game.
Even then, neither was a hard-hit ball. The ugly part of his season line has also been inflated by a pair of blow-up appearances that accounted for nine earned runs, nearly half of what he’s allowed all year.
So while the internet has had plenty to say about Hoffman, the numbers underneath the surface tell a different story. Through 52 innings, he owns a 3.81 ERA, a 2.75 xFIP and 1.2 fWAR.
The biggest reason? Strikeouts.
Hoffman has punched out 81 hitters already, good for a 34.6% strikeout rate that lands in the 98th percentile. He’s missing bats on 37.7% of swings, which puts him in the 99th percentile, and he’s also sitting in the 97th percentile in chase rate at 37.7% on pitches outside the zone.
He has backed that up with a 9.4% walk rate and a 25.2% K-BB%, which ranks ninth among pitchers with at least 50 innings in 2026. Hoffman also checks in seventh in SIERA at 2.56, behind names like Mason Miller, Jacob Misiorowski, and Louie Varland.
For a reliever, that’s the kind of profile that usually travels well. The process is strong, and the indicators all point the same direction.
His pitch mix supports that case too. Hoffman’s slider has been especially sharp, holding opponents to a .256 xwOBA, while his splitter has limited hitters to a .267 xwOBA. The four-seamer and sinker haven’t matched that level, but that’s been the case since 2021.
It’s part of why Minnesota wanted him at the deadline. The Twins, who are half a game back of the final AL Wild Card spot, see Hoffman as more than a temporary fix. He’s under control through the 2027 season, and if the Twins stay in the race, he looks capable of becoming a major weapon down the stretch and into October.
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