Zebby Matthews left Wednesday’s loss to the Detroit Tigers with the kind of line that forces a team to think bigger picture. He lasted just 2.1 innings, gave up two hits, issued four walks and was charged with five earned runs, including Colt Keith’s two-run homer in the first inning. For a Twins club with fading playoff hopes, it was another hard reminder that the future matters now.
And for Minnesota, Matthews is no longer just a starter trying to find his footing. At 26, he’s at the point where the organization has to decide what he really is.
Former Twins reliever Danny Coulombe once called him “a future star,” and Matthews has shown enough flashes over three seasons in the majors to keep that idea alive. But the bigger picture is less flattering: a 15-20 record and a 5.45 ERA across his first three seasons points to a possible move out of the rotation.
That’s where Louis Varland comes in.
Twins fans know the sting of watching Varland bloom somewhere else after the fire sale trade to the Toronto Blue Jays last year. He’s now an All-Star closer, but his path to that role started as a starter with rough surface numbers: a 5-11 record and a 5.51 ERA in 38 games, 22 of them starts, over his first three seasons.
Even then, there were clues. In 2024, his fastball averaged 96.1 mph and he posted 7.0 feet of extension, according to Baseball Savant.
Minnesota saw enough to keep believing. Varland’s stuff showed up in the 2023 playoff run, when he put together a 1.50 ERA with 17 strikeouts and one walk over seven relief outings to close the regular season. Then came 2024, when he went 0-6 with a 7.61 ERA in 16 appearances, seven of them starts, and the Twins finally made the move: full-time reliever for 2025.
It worked. In 139 games over the last two seasons, Varland has posted a 2.13 ERA with 162 strikeouts and 43 walks in 144.0 regular-season innings.
He was just as sharp in the Blue Jays’ postseason run last year, putting up a 3.94 ERA with 17 strikeouts and three walks in 15 appearances. Kevin Gausman called his arrival “one of the best trades we’ve ever made.”
That success lands differently in Minnesota, where the Twins have been patching together a bullpen through the 2026 season and could use another power arm. Andrew Morris has helped, but there’s still room - and need - for more.
Matthews and Varland also line up in ways that make the comparison hard to ignore. Over their first three seasons, the numbers are awfully close:
Louis Varland (2022-24)
Zebby Matthews (2024-26)
Appearances/Starts
38/22
46/46
Record
5-11
15-20
ERA
5.51
5.45
Innings Pitched
143.2
236.1
WHIP
1.38
1.40
K%
22.5%
22.3%
BB%
6.2%
7.0%
HR%
5.1%
4.5%
GB%
42.4%
38.5%
Average Exit Velocity
89.9 mph
89.8 mph
The overlap becomes even clearer when Varland’s 2024 season is stacked against Matthews’s 2026 work:
Louis Varland (2024)
Zebby Matthews (2026)
Fastball Velocity
96.1 mph
95.2 mph
Average Exit Velocity
90.6 mph
90.6 mph
Chase Rate
23.6%
27.5%
Whiff Rate
23.2%
21.9%
K%
20.6%
19.8%
BB%
6.7%
7.4%
HR%
5.0%
4.6%
GB%
42.0%
42.8%
There’s still a case for keeping Matthews in the rotation. In a perfect world, Minnesota would want him to win a starting job next season. The starting staff ranks 25th with a 4.58 ERA and a 5.26 ERA in the second half, and the picture could shift again if the Twins trade Joe Ryan or if Mick Abel, David Festa or Pablo Lopez run into setbacks in their season-ending injuries.
But the bullpen route may be the cleaner path. Quality relief pitching can cost somewhere in the $6 to $12 million range based on last year’s free-agent market, and even then the role is volatile from year to year. Minnesota could also address the rotation elsewhere, whether by signing a veteran or making a trade like the one that brought in Dean Kremer at this year’s deadline, and then use Matthews in the bullpen at a lower cost.
It’s not a perfect apples-to-apples comparison. Varland’s rise in Toronto sets a high bar, and Matthews did just throw a strong outing against the Chicago White Sox on Aug. 30, allowing one earned run on five hits with five strikeouts. But those flashes have been mixed with too many starts like the one in Detroit.
The Twins may still keep Matthews in the mix as a starter. They should, at the very least, keep the Varland blueprint close at hand.
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