The MLB Draft Lottery gave the Minnesota Twins an early holiday gift this year, locking them into the No. 3 overall pick in next July’s draft. It’s the highest slot the organization has held since 2017-and it’s a golden opportunity to add an impact player to a farm system that’s already on the rise.
But here’s the thing about the third overall pick: it’s a bit of a wild card. Yes, it’s a premium spot.
Yes, it’s produced some absolute legends. But it’s also a pick that comes with no guarantees.
The history of the No. 3 selection is a mixed bag-Hall of Famers on one end, fringe big leaguers on the other, and plenty of “what ifs” in between. That’s the tightrope the Twins are walking now: the potential to land a franchise-altering talent, with the understanding that even the best scouting departments can swing and miss.
Let’s take a look at that history. Go back to the 1970s, and you’ll find the Brewers absolutely nailing the No. 3 pick-twice.
They took Robin Yount in 1973 and Paul Molitor in 1977, two future Hall of Famers who each racked up more than 75 career WAR. That’s the gold standard for the third overall pick, and it’s still towering over most of the selections that followed.
Fast forward to the 2000s, and the pick started producing more star power again. Evan Longoria went third in 2006, and Manny Machado followed in 2010. Machado, who’s already posted 61.7 rWAR, is still adding to his legacy and has a real shot at joining that elite company when all is said and done.
But the recent track record at No. 3? It’s been more of a mixed bag.
In 2023, the Tigers took Max Clark, a high-upside prep outfielder who’s already cracked top-50 prospect lists. Scouts love his tools and makeup, and if things break right, he could be in the big leagues by 2026. That’s the kind of upside you dream about with a top-three pick.
The year before, the Rangers made a surprising move by selecting Kumar Rocker. His path to the draft was anything but conventional-Vanderbilt ace, independent ball, then back into the first round.
Texas bet on his upside, but so far the results have been uneven. Last season, he posted a 4.88 FIP with a 19.5% strikeout rate, showing flashes but struggling to put it all together consistently.
Miami took Max Meyer third overall in 2020, hoping the Minnesota native could anchor their rotation. Injuries and inconsistency have slowed his development, and while he’s still in the mix, his long-term role is unclear. In 2025, he posted a 4.47 FIP and a 23.9 K%, numbers that suggest there’s still potential-but also work to be done.
And then there’s Minnesota’s own history with the No. 3 pick-two swings, neither of them landing quite right.
In 1987, the Twins took Willie Banks, a right-hander they hoped would become a rotation mainstay. Instead, Banks bounced around the league, finishing with just 1.0 career rWAR over 85 appearances.
Four years later, they grabbed Dave McCarty, a college bat with power and polish. He made it to the majors and stuck around for parts of 11 seasons, but never became the middle-of-the-order threat the Twins envisioned.
In fact, his time in Minnesota produced a negative career rWAR (-3.2).
That’s the cautionary tale. High picks come with high hopes, but they don’t always deliver.
Looking ahead to next July, the Twins are in a strong position. There’s already buzz around college shortstop Justin Lebron, who posted a 127 wRC+ last season for Alabama and is considered a potential fit at No.
- Other names to watch include Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress, Virginia’s A.J.
Gracia, and Coastal Carolina right-hander Cameron Flukey. It’s still early-spring performances can shake up draft boards in a hurry-but the Twins will have options.
And here’s a fun little nugget for the superstitious crowd: the last two times Minnesota held the No. 3 pick, the franchise went on to win the World Series. Coincidence?
Maybe. But with a top-tier pick in hand and a front office that’s shown an eye for talent in recent years, the Twins are positioned to make this one count.
The story of the third overall pick is full of twists-some glorious, some frustrating. The Twins are hoping their next chapter is one of the good ones.