The Twins have spent another October on the outside looking in, and this World Series only sharpens the question hanging over the franchise: how did it get here?
Minnesota has missed the playoffs in five of the past six seasons, and the frustration has naturally landed on payroll cuts. But the spending isn’t the whole story. The bigger problem is that the Twins keep getting beat at the basic stuff that actually sustains a contender.
That’s why the teams left standing are such an uncomfortable mirror.
The Milwaukee Brewers earned their spot in the Fall Classic by sweeping the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday night, and they’ll meet either the Tampa Bay Rays or Cleveland Guardians. However that series ends, the matchup will be between small-market clubs that have figured out how to win without throwing money around like the Dodgers.
And that matters in Minnesota.
According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Brewers finished with a year-end payroll of $99.3 million, ranked 23rd, and knocked off a Dodgers roster that checked in at No. 1 at $366.0 million. The Rays came in at 20th with $103.1 million, while the Guardians ranked 25th at $91.0 million.
The Twins were above all of them at 17th with a year-end figure of $123.9 million.
That doesn’t mean spending is useless, but it does underline the point the current contenders are making. Building a winner is about getting value out of the roster, making the right trades at the right time and developing players who can carry the whole thing once they arrive.
The Brewers, Rays and Guardians have all leaned into that model. They’ve been willing to move players before free agency hits, using that window to restock the organization.
Milwaukee did it in a February 2024 deal built around Corbin Burnes, getting left-hander DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz back. The Rays have also played that game, including the trade of Triple-A right-hander Tobias Myers to Cleveland when he was eligible for the Rule 5 Draft in 2021, a move that brought back Junior Caminero.
Cleveland missed on Myers, but it made other shrewd moves that brought in Craig Yoho, Patrick Bailey, Foster Griffin and Kyle Manzardo.
Those kinds of deals always come with a cost because they usually mean saying goodbye to popular players. But the payoff is a longer championship window.
Then comes the part that finishes the job: player development. Each of these clubs has a homegrown name it can point to, whether it’s Jose Ramirez, Jacob Misiorowski or Caminero.
That’s where the Twins have too often stalled.
The trade deadline offered one chance to change the story. Instead of moving players who could have brought back major returns, like Ryan Jeffers and Joe Ryan, Minnesota went the other way and added A.J. Minter, Jeff Hoffman and Dean Kremer.
There was also the attempted Trevor Larnach deal with the Houston Astros, though owner Jim Crane vetoed it. In that case, the Twins were trying to land Bryan Abreu, who finished with his highest ERA at 3.73 and his lowest WAR at 1.0 since his rookie season in 2021.
Development remains the other glaring issue. Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner have flashed quickly once they reached the majors, but both have run into the same wall when pitchers adjust. That problem traces back to Miguel Sano’s downfall in the early 2020s and still shows up in a group of post-hype hitters who never matched their prospect billing.
Now the Twins are left with a messy offseason. Jeffers was not moved at the deadline, and there’s a strong chance he walks in free agency.
Ryan still has a year of team control left, but dealing him now could bring back a pair of MLB-ready players. Meanwhile, top prospects Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Kaelen Culpepper all made their debuts this season, and the next step is making sure they don’t backslide once they enter their first full year in the majors.
Some fans may want a salary floor as a way to force accountability on the Pohlads. But the bigger lesson from the Rays, Guardians and Brewers is simpler than that: top-dollar spending isn’t the only path to contention. Minnesota would be wise to start copying the parts of the blueprint that actually work.
In Other News...
Josh Donaldson Just Reopened A Twins Trust Issue Fans Know Too Well
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The broader issue has hardly gone away. Minnesotas relief corps has been a source of unease in recent years, and the fix would seem to require both sharper transparency around pitching changes and better arms to deploy when games tighten up late. Donaldsons comments do not change the past, but they do put a familiar pressure point back in view for a club still trying to convince everyone it has the bullpen answers to match the rest of its roster. [Read more 🡒]
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Twins Linked To A Veteran Bat With A Very Specific Role
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Goldschmidts appeal also comes from the split that has defined much of his late-career value, making him the sort of platoon piece teams can plug in without asking him to carry the offense every day. For Minnesota, that kind of fit would be about balance as much as production, and it fits the broader conversation around how to support a young core. For now, though, it remains just that, an idea floating around the edges of the Twins offseason rather than any official move. [Read more 🡒]