A year after the Twins and Rays swapped Griffin Jax and Taj Bradley, the trade still feels like one of those deals that refuses to sit still. Bradley has grown into one of Minnesota’s better arms.
Jax, who arrived as a reliever, has remade himself as a starter. With the deadline approaching again, the question hangs in the air: who would you rather have now?
Bradley’s 2026 season has been the more eye-catching of the two, especially for a Twins rotation that has had to absorb injuries. He was uneven in his first taste of life in Minnesota, posting a 6.61 ERA and 4.73 FIP in 31 1/3 innings over six starts after the trade.
This year has looked much different. Through 17 starts, Bradley owns a 3.67 ERA and 3.80 FIP across 1.6 fWAR, which ranks second among Twins pitchers behind only Joe Ryan.
The strikeouts have been a big part of the story. Bradley is missing bats at a 27.8% clip, the second-highest mark of his career.
He still gives up damage when hitters connect, but he has been able to cover for that by simply not letting enough balls get put in play cleanly. Statcast shows positive run values on his fastball, cutter and splitter.
The curveball has been the weak spot, with a -7 run value and opponents slugging .568 against it, but Bradley has managed to work around that flaw.
Jax’s path has been stranger, and maybe more dramatic. He began the year in obvious trouble as a reliever.
His FIP sat at 7.56, even though his xFIP was 4.58, and his walk rate climbed to 15.9%. The home runs piled up, and opposing hitters posted a .413 wOBA against him.
After only nine innings in relief, he moved into the rotation.
That switch has changed everything. Since becoming a starter, Jax has put up a 2.89 ERA and 3.99 FIP in 56 innings, while striking out 26.1% of the hitters he’s faced. His walk rate has dropped all the way to 6.8%, and opponents have managed just a .297 wOBA against him.
His pitch mix tells the same story. Jax has gotten strong results from his sweeper, changeup and sinker, all of which carry positive run values. His fastball has been his worst pitch by far, with a -5 run value, while his curveball and cutter have barely been used compared to the rest of his arsenal.
The move to starting wasn’t exactly out of nowhere. Even when Jax was still with the Twins, there were whispers that he wanted to make that transition.
Now that he has done it with the Rays, it has worked out for him and for Tampa Bay. The hope, as the piece of the puzzle closes in on the next step, is that it leads to a big payday soon.
Jax is a good pitcher, and the Twins and their fans knew that when they dealt him.
Control matters in a comparison like this, and Bradley has the edge there too. He is still in pre-arbitration and will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this fall.
Free agency won’t come until November 2029. Jax, meanwhile, avoided arbitration this year by signing a one-year deal with the Rays.
The 31-year-old has one more year of arbitration left before he reaches free agency. Bradley’s age and team control make him the cleaner long-term bet for Minnesota, especially if he keeps looking like a front-of-the-rotation starter.
The salary picture points the same way. Bradley is making $802,050 in 2026, while Jax is at $3.6 million.
That means the Twins came out ahead financially by moving Jax for Bradley, even if they didn’t turn around and pour that savings into a major bullpen overhaul. Still, it’s not hard to see how those extra dollars mattered somewhere else along the way.
For now, both clubs can point to reasons the deal made sense. Bradley has given the Twins a young, cost-controlled starter with years of control left.
Jax has become a useful starter for a Rays team pushing toward a division title. The debate isn’t going away anytime soon, but the clean verdict still hasn’t arrived.
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Twins May Be Forced Off Their Draft Plan At No. 3
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Keith Laws latest read on the class only adds to the uncertainty, since the Twins may have to react to how the first two picks and the clubs ahead of them break. If Cholowsky is there, he could be the obvious fit, but Minnesota may not get that clean a choice, and the possibility of a pivot to another college bat or arm is very much alive as the draft order starts to sort itself out. [Read more 🡒]