Joe Ryan’s next turn has been pushed back, and the timing could hardly be more delicate for the Minnesota Twins.
The club will not send its All-Star right-hander to the mound this weekend against the Athletics because of arm fatigue, according to Aaron Gleeman. Derek Shelton said the expectation is that Ryan could pitch at some point next week against the Royals, but nothing has been scheduled yet.
That leaves Minnesota to navigate a rotation that has already been battered by injuries all season. The Twins announced only hours before Saturday’s first pitch that rookie Connor Prielipp, who recently made a rehab start, would not get the assignment. Instead, Mike Paredes will start against Oakland.
Ryan’s absence comes on the heels of one of the roughest outings of his career. He entered the All-Star break looking every bit like a Cy Young contender with a 2.85 ERA, then returned Monday and tied an MLB record by giving up SIX home runs against the Cleveland Guardians. The eight-run start pushed his ERA to 3.38.
The arm fatigue issue also complicates an already tricky situation for Minnesota as the Aug. 3 trade deadline approaches. If the Twins decide to sell, Ryan would be one of the biggest names available. Any team interested in him would need to be comfortable with his current health status, though, and now there’s added uncertainty about when he’ll take the ball again.
That uncertainty matters because Ryan’s profile has become a real puzzle for Minnesota. At 30 years old, he has one year of team control left, through 2027. The current collective bargaining agreement expires December 1st, which adds another layer of uncertainty around the value of that final season if a work stoppage enters the picture.
There’s also the matter of what Ryan has done after the break in past seasons. Gleeman recently pointed out that his second-half numbers have consistently lagged behind his first-half production.
Before the break, Ryan has regularly pitched at an All-Star level, with an ERA between 2.72 and 3.70. After it, the drop has been sharp enough that his best second-half ERA, a 3.98 in 2024, would have been his worst first-half mark.
The home-run issue is part of that pattern. Ryan has allowed 1.1 homers per nine innings before the All-Star break, then 2.0 afterward.
He has given up three or more homers in 3 percent of his starts before the break, compared with 11 percent after it. The four-homer games show an even bigger jump: 2 percent before the break and 9 percent after.
Ryan has also missed significant stretches of the second half on the injured list in two different seasons, even though he has been durable early in the year. So while the arm fatigue diagnosis is new, the broader concern is not.
For the Twins, that makes the next week especially important. If Ryan is able to return against Kansas City, it could be his final start before the deadline. And if he doesn’t look like the same pitcher clubs saw in the first half, that could have a real impact on how the market views him.
Minnesota dropped the opener of its series with the Athletics, 2-0, and fell to 51-54. The Twins went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position and couldn’t cash in a bounce-back outing from Zebby Matthews.
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