The Minnesota Twins have pushed themselves to the edge of the cliff, and the math is brutal. After dropping two of three to the Cleveland Guardians over the weekend, Minnesota is now 5 1/2 games back of Cleveland for the final Wild Card spot and six games behind the Chicago White Sox in the American League Central. The Twins sit at 70-79, and entering Monday FanGraphs gave them just a 0.5% shot at reaching the postseason and a 0.0% chance to win the World Series.
There are only 13 games left on the schedule, which leaves the Twins in a spot where almost nothing short of a perfect finish will do. Even then, they would need a long list of teams ahead of them to stumble enough to open a path back into the bracket.
The updated Wild Card picture shows just how far Minnesota has fallen. The New York Yankees are sitting at 86-63 with a 100.0% chance to make the postseason, while the Boston Red Sox are 82-68 and also locked in at 100.0%.
Cleveland is 76-74 with a 67.3% postseason chance. The Toronto Blue Jays are 75-75, 1.0 game back, and at 43.7%.
The Texas Rangers are 74-76, 2.0 games back, with a 30.5% chance. Baltimore is 72-78, four games back, and at 1.4%.
Minnesota and Detroit are both 70-79, 5.5 games back, with the Twins at 0.5% and the Tigers at 0.7%. Seattle is 70-80, six games back, and at 4%.
In the AL Central, Chicago leads the way at 76-73 with a 75.2% chance to reach the postseason. Cleveland is right behind at 76-74, just 0.5 games back, and FanGraphs gives the Guardians a 67.4% shot. Minnesota and Detroit are tied at 70-79, six games back, and Kansas City is buried at 66-84 with a 0.0% chance.
What makes this sting even more is that Minnesota went into the deadline trying to add for a run. The Twins brought in right-handed relievers Jeff Hoffman and Tommy Nance, right-handed starting pitcher Dean Kremer and left-handed reliever A.J.
Minter. Minter is the only one of the group not under team control beyond this season, but the point of the moves was clear: they were trying to help this club get to October now.
Instead, the Twins are staring at another wasted finish. That’s not a new feeling for this fan base, either. Last season’s club had a 95.4% playoff chance on Sept. 5, according to FanGraphs, and still missed the postseason after finishing 82-80.
The 2022 Twins pulled the same kind of fade. They were 62-55 and leading the AL Central in mid-August, then went 16-29 the rest of the way and missed out.
And there’s one more layer to the frustration. The current CBA expires on Dec. 1, and with a lockout possibility hanging over the sport, the idea of wasting this kind of opportunity hurts even more.
It would have been nice for the Twins to make the end of the 2026 season matter before an uncertain offseason arrived. For all we know, the Minnesota Twins might not play baseball until 2028 after this season ends.
In Other News...
Twins Have A Byron Buxton Decision That Could Reshape Center Field
Byron Buxton has made his preference clear: he wants to stay in center field, the spot where he has been one of the games most electric defenders and a two-time All-Star. For the Twins, that creates more than a simple lineup note. It ties directly into how they want to structure their outfield in the years ahead, especially with Buxtons health now part of every conversation after the recurring hip issue that will need surgery.
Minnesota is also looking at a changing roster around him, with Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall all adding to the sense that the clubs outfield picture is getting crowded in a hurry. The challenge for the Twins is figuring out how much longer Buxton can stay in the middle while still giving the team the best chance to compete, and whether the answer for 2027 means keeping the defense anchored around him or making room for the next wave. [Read more 🡒]
Twins Deadline Deal Looks Worse As Playoff Race Slips Away
When the Twins went shopping at the deadline, adding Jeff Hoffman from Toronto was supposed to help stabilize the bullpen for a push in the stretch run. Hoffman has done his part since arriving in Minnesota, giving the club the kind of relief work it hoped to buy, while the front office parted with prospects including Dasan Hill to make the deal happen.
The problem is the larger picture around the trade keeps getting less favorable for Minnesota. The Twins are now trailing in the playoff race, while the Blue Jays remain alive, which adds a layer of hindsight to a move that already carried some risk. If Toronto keeps playing into October, the swap could end up feeling even sharper for the Twins, with the added sting of watching a traded arm contribute to a contender while the prospects head the other way. [Read more 🡒]
Joe Ryan Trade Buzz Leaves Twins With One Huge Problem
Joe Ryan has been living in the rumor mill for more than a year, and the talk only picked up after the Twins started moving established players in 2025. Even with all that speculation, Minnesota kept him, and he is now headed into the final year of team control in 2027, which usually means the phone keeps ringing. For a club trying to thread the needle between competing and reworking the roster, Ryan remains one of the most obvious names to monitor.
The problem for the Twins is that a trade path is not nearly as clean as the buzz suggests. Ryans second-half performance has raised questions, his injury status is still unclear, and the possibility of a baseball lockout could change the market in ways that make an offseason deal harder to justify. So while he may keep popping up in conversations, Minnesota has to decide whether the timing is right to move a pitcher who still brings real value, or whether the risk is too high to cash in now. [Read more 🡒]