The Twins’ offseason arbitration decisions are already coming into focus, and the calendar matters here. Minnesota has 10 players eligible, and the club will have to choose whether to tender each one a contract in late November, before the expected lockout begins on December 1st.
Some of these calls are simple. Others are messy. And with the Twins signaling a more aggressive approach to building the roster, there’s real room for debate on where they draw the line.
At the top of the list is Joe Ryan, who is as close to automatic as it gets. He’s in his final year of eligibility, with an MLB Trade Rumors projection of $9.6 million and a 100% tender likelihood.
The only real question is whether he’s even still in Minnesota by then, since a trade is described as a very real possibility. His deal also includes a mutual option for $13 million, though the expectation here is that the Twins would turn it down and pay the $100,000 buyout instead.
Dean Kremer also looks likely to stick around. He’s projected at $6.5 million and gets an 80% tender chance. Minnesota gave up an intriguing prospect to get him at the deadline, in part because of that extra year of control, and he performed the way the club could have hoped after the trade.
Bailey Ober is a far shakier call. He’s projected at $6.9 million, but the tender odds are set at just 30%.
The issue is fit as much as performance: after the Kremer addition, the two right-handers look pretty redundant as veteran back-end starters with similar price tags. Still, there’s an argument for keeping both, especially if the Twins want to lean into pitching depth and are comfortable carrying them together for about $14 million.
The bullpen brings its own pile of uncertainty. Anthony Banda, projected at $2.3 million with a 40% chance of being tendered, is described as a borderline case.
He was getting into a better rhythm after a rough start before a season-ending lat injury shut him down, and his overall track record is ordinary aside from a couple solid years with the Dodgers. That salary isn’t crazy, but it’s not a bargain either.
Cole Sands sits in a similar gray area, though for different reasons. He’s projected at $1.3 million and has a 30% tender likelihood.
His 2024 season looked encouraging, but since then he has a 5.04 ERA and missed almost all of this past season because of injury. A non-tender followed by a minor-league re-signing is presented as a real possibility.
Tommy Nance falls somewhere in the middle. His projection is only $1.2 million, and the tender odds are 50%.
That figure is low enough to keep him in the bullpen picture, but the evaluation here is plain: he was fine, not special. If the Twins truly intend to invest more heavily, this is one spot where spending to upgrade would make sense.
At the same time, there’s nothing wrong with keeping an inexpensive lower-leverage arm.
Trevor Larnach’s case is more complicated because the performance and the roster fit point in different directions. He’s projected at $6.3 million and has just a 30% chance of getting tendered.
He posted a career-high OPS that ranked third on the team, which makes the decision harder on its face. But with Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez now in the mix, there isn’t much room left for him in the outfield.
A sign-and-trade is mentioned as a possibility, though the Twins have had a hard time creating a market for their left-handed corner outfielders. The expectation here is that Minnesota won’t want him on the books heading into the lockout.
Royce Lewis is the toughest call of the group, and the most consequential. He’s in his second-to-last year, projected at $5.1 million, and gets a 60% tender chance.
The idea of non-tendering him would have sounded absurd not long ago, especially coming off his healthiest season, but the argument now is about production, not price. He finished the year looking rough, and the concern is that he has become a poor offensive first baseman on a team that needs more offense.
A tender still feels slightly more likely than not, largely because the Twins could probably get something back in a trade. Even so, the expectation here is that he won’t be on the club’s Opening Day roster next season.
Kody Clemens is one of the cleanest decisions on the board. He’s projected at $3.6 million, has a 100% tender likelihood, and has a case as team MVP.
This is his first year of arbitration eligibility, which means he won’t hit free agency until after the 2029 season. The verdict is simple: he’s coming back.
Taj Bradley is right there with him. Also projected at $4.5 million and also at 100% to be tendered, he’s described as another leading MVP candidate for the 2026 Twins.
He’s three years away from free agency and has become a building block in the rotation. The only way he isn’t tendered is if the Twins work out an extension before then, and that possibility is explicitly on the table.
Taken together, the group gives Minnesota a mix of obvious keepers, obvious cuts, and a few decisions that could go either way depending on how aggressive the front office wants to be.
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