The Minnesota Twins’ rotation picture has one clear top line, but the fifth spot still feels wide open enough to make for a real decision. Taj Bradley was the story of the 2026 season, finishing with 205 strikeouts and leading the staff in fWAR (2.8), innings pitched (178 ⅓), strikeout rate (10.35 K/9), quality starts (15), and the lowest BABIP allowed (.270) among the five pitchers who threw at least 100 innings.
Below that, two names stand out for different reasons: Zebby Matthews and Dean Kremer.
Kremer came in at the trade deadline with some uncertainty attached, but he ended up outpacing expectations down the stretch. Over 10 starts and 54 ⅓ innings, he produced 0.9 fWAR and cut his home run rate to 0.99 HR/9.
Matthews’ path was less steady. He struggled from May through July, when his 4.25 xFIP reflected the rough stretch, then found some traction in August before losing momentum again in September.
Even so, his second-half numbers paint a more encouraging picture than the surface results: after the All-Star break, his strikeout rate climbed from 7.25 per nine innings to 8.81, and he posted a 3.71 xFIP, which sits much closer to his underlying performance than the 5.26 ERA in the traditional stat line.
For 2027, the bigger rotation roles look lined up already. Pablo Lopez is expected back, joining Joe Ryan and Bradley in the top three, while Bailey Ober appears set for the fourth spot. That leaves Matthews and Kremer fighting for the last opening.
On performance alone, Kremer has the edge right now. His track record gives him a case, and his ability to stabilize after arriving in Minnesota matters.
It also helps that Matthews still hasn’t turned his tools into sustained production. Kremer’s best fWAR season is 2.6, which he posted in 2025, while Matthews, now 26, remains one of the organization’s more intriguing bets to become a dependable starter.
He’s had 39 starts across the past two seasons, including 23 in 2026, but the progress has not yet fully clicked.
The numbers back that up. Matthews’ fWAR slipped from 1.3 in 2025 to 0.7 this year, and even with continued improvement in his breaking pitches, several other indicators moved the wrong way.
His Chase% dropped from the 73rd percentile to the 23rd, while his K% and Whiff% percentiles fell from 68 to 41 and from 29, respectively. The expected metrics are tougher still: he sits well below league average in Barrel% (4th percentile), Hard Hit% (7th percentile), xSLG (22nd percentile), and xERA (34th percentile).
That inconsistency is enough to nudge the fifth-starter battle toward Kremer. Still, Matthews should get chances in the rotation, and that makes sense. He could also be deployed out of the bullpen, where he’d help deepen the relief corps and absorb innings behind starts from Kremer or Ober.
In Other News...
Twins Face One Big Offseason Question About Their Top Prospects
Tom Pohlads suggestion that the payroll could rise in 2027 gives the Twins a little more room to think long term, but it does not solve the immediate offseason puzzle in front of them. Minnesota still has one of the stronger farm systems in the game, and that depth creates choices as much as it creates optimism, especially when the front office is weighing how to reshape the major league roster after a season that left plenty of room for change.
The question now is how aggressively the Twins want to use that prospect capital. Catching depth and a crowded outfield give the club some flexibility, and that is the kind of surplus rival teams tend to ask about first in trade talks. Minnesota has enough young talent to improve from within, but it also has enough to dangle in pursuit of help that fits the big-league roster more cleanly, which is where the real offseason pressure starts to build. [Read more 🡒]
Tommy Nance Gave The Twins A Bullpen Decision To Make
Tommy Nances 2026 season gave the Twins a useful reminder that bullpen depth can shift fast when a pitcher stays on the field and keeps getting called on. After making Torontos Opening Day roster and working a career-high 59 appearances, he went through a year that was mostly healthy aside from some midseason forearm discomfort, and even when fatigue started to show late, he was still available often enough to matter. For a Minnesota bullpen that is always trying to sort out who can handle real leverage, that kind of durability is not nothing.
Nance also knows there is still room to sharpen the way he shows up for those moments. He plans to make adjustments in the offseason as he tries to be quicker getting locked in, with an eye on carving out more high-leverage chances once he gets to the Twins in 2027. The path forward is pretty clear from here: keep the body right, get the command where it needs to be, and make it easier for Minnesota to trust him when the game gets tight. [Read more 🡒]
Twins Face A Tougher Bullpen Call With Eric Orze This Spring
Eric Orzes place in the Twins bullpen is set to come with a little more urgency this spring, because the club has to decide not just whether he helps them now, but how much patience it can afford to show if he does not. His 2026 season trended down from what he showed in 2025, and Minnesota will spend camp trying to determine whether a change in environment, and a fresh voice in the coaching staff, can help him get back on track.
Brian Reiths arrival adds an interesting layer to that evaluation, since he has seen Orze before and now gets another chance to judge what the right role looks like for him. The broader challenge for the Twins is roster management, because Orzes status makes him tougher to stash if he does not win a job outright, and that puts even more weight on how he looks in spring training compared with the clubs other bullpen candidates. [Read more 🡒]