The Twins have a decision coming fast on Trevor Larnach, and it may say as much about their roster direction as it does about the outfielder himself.
With the November 20 arbitration deadline approaching, Larnach sits squarely on the bubble as a non-tender candidate. He was in the same spot last offseason, and Minnesota kept him around.
That call paid off in 2026, when he turned in a career year and posted a .788 OPS. Even so, the fit is still messy, and the Twins could use this moment to clear some of the left-handed clutter they’ve built up in the outfield.
That logjam has made it hard for the club to sort through its options. Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodríguez are expected to be prioritized, but there are other left-handed bats who have had trouble finding consistent chances. Larnach has been part of that crowd, and his place in the picture is not nearly as secure as a strong season might suggest.
The money matters, too. Larnach is projected to make $6.3 million, and that’s not an easy number to swallow for a player whose track record before 2026 left plenty of room for doubt. He made $4.475 million this season, and while his performance justified that salary, the Twins have to weigh that against his age, his career arc, and what the roster may look like in 2027.
Larnach was 23% more productive than an average hitter in 2026, but the power never really matched the overall line. His season was driven by a career-best on-base percentage and his best batting average on balls in play since 2022.
That made him useful, no question. But a career-high .436 slugging percentage still leaves him short of the kind of middle-of-the-order threat teams usually want from a corner outfielder.
The injury history adds another layer. Larnach has dealt with stretches each season where he’s been in and out of the lineup, limited to DH work, or unavailable altogether.
Now there’s also the news that he will undergo arthroscopic wrist surgery this offseason. There’s time for it to heal, but it’s not ideal for a soon-to-be 30-year-old corner outfielder who already doesn’t bring much power.
Defense only complicates the case further. Larnach would be the team’s worst option in left field, and that clashes with what the Twins have said they want to become.
They’ve talked for years about being more fundamentally sound, with speed and defense as the stated goals, even if the on-field implementation has been limited. Larnach gives them neither, since he’s a below-average runner and has regularly posted negative defensive metrics.
Still, there’s a real case for keeping him. His 2026 production would have been worth the price, and tendering him would be the safest route.
It would preserve depth and could keep at least one top prospect in St. Paul.
It would also signal that the Twins believe in what he just did, and maybe think there’s still more in there.
The other side of the argument is just as clear. If 2026 was Larnach’s ceiling, the Twins may decide they already have other players who can match that output.
Non-tendering him would point in that direction. Alan Roden is one possibility, with a much better glove and similar on-base-driven offense.
Emmanuel Rodríguez is another, though he would need to make the Opening Day roster in 2027.
A trade may be the cleanest answer. Larnach may not be a perfect fit for the 2027 Twins, but his 2026 season could still make him appealing to another club willing to take a chance on him.
If Minnesota can get something back, it could settle the question before it reaches the tender deadline. Either way, the clock is ticking, and a decision is coming within the week.
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