The Twins have a Ryan Jeffers decision to make, and the first step is pretty clear: they should extend the qualifying offer.
A qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average salary of MLB’s 125 highest-paid players. According to the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, that figure this offseason will be $23.15 million. Minnesota can only make that offer if the player has never received one before and spent the entire season with the club, which puts Jeffers squarely in play.
There are two obvious reasons the Twins should do it. The first is simple roster math.
Victor Caratini is the only catcher on Minnesota’s 40-man roster heading into the offseason, and while the farm system has some promising names - most notably 2026 third-overall pick Vahn Lackey - none look ready to handle an Opening Day job on 2027 Opening Day. Paying $23.15 million for one season of Jeffers would be expensive, but it would also buy Minnesota time until a younger option is ready, likely in 2028.
The second reason is the compensation that comes back if Jeffers walks. If he declines the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, the Twins would get a draft pick in return because they’re a revenue-sharing recipient.
If Jeffers lands a deal worth $50 million or more, Minnesota would receive a compensatory pick after the first round of next year’s draft. If he signs for less than $50 million, the Twins would get a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round, likely somewhere in the 70th-75th overall range.
That matters because Jeffers should have the market to do better than one year. He posted 2.6 fWAR in 92 games this season, and if he declines the QO, he should be in line for a multi-year deal worth at least $50 million.
That said, there is always a small chance he takes the one-year path. Most players turn down the offer, but Yankees outfielder Trent Grisham bucked that trend last offseason by accepting it. If Jeffers believes another strong season is in him, he could take the $23.15 million and push free agency back to the 2027-28 offseason.
Still, with the Twins’ catching depth still some distance away, the case for making the offer is strong. Even if Minnesota ultimately prefers to spend its payroll elsewhere, it makes sense to keep Jeffers in the mix for at least one more season or set up the draft-pick fallback if he leaves.
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