The Minnesota Twins can’t afford to treat this winter like a waiting game.
After finishing 77-85 and landing eight games back of the American League Central champion Guardians, Minnesota has enough evidence on the board to know that better health alone won’t magically turn this roster into a contender. The run differential told the same story, sitting at minus-58. If the Twins want to take a real swing at 2027, the offseason needs to be built around actual upgrades - especially behind the plate and in the bullpen - not just hope.
There is a window here, but it won’t stay open long. Byron Buxton is 32 and signed through 2028.
Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez are both 30, while Bailey Ober and Dean Kremer are in their early 30s. All four starters could hit free agency after 2027, even if Ryan’s mutual option is declined and he instead gets an arbitration deal for next season.
Lopez is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and Buxton had right hip surgery in September. Their returns matter, but neither can be treated as a sure thing.
At the same time, the younger core is starting to show up in a meaningful way. Taj Bradley, 25, struck out 205 batters with a 3.73 ERA in 2026.
Luke Keaschall is 24, Royce Lewis is 27, and late-season additions Walker Jenkins and Kaelen Culpepper are just 21 and 23. Emmanuel Rodriguez also reached the majors in September.
That mix gives Minnesota a chance to build around its next wave while still trying to win now.
The farm system has help, but not the kind that solves every problem on its own. MLB Pipeline ranked the Twins’ system 11th in August, and the most immediate position prospects, Jenkins and Culpepper, are already in the majors.
Catchers Vahn Lackey and Eduardo Tait give the organization longer-term options, with Marek Houston at Double-A, but that group is not ready to cover an immediate hole if Ryan Jeffers leaves. It also won’t suddenly produce a proven late-inning bullpen by Opening Day.
That’s why payroll matters so much here. Chairman Tom Pohlad has said the Twins plan to raise payroll in 2027, though he has not given a number.
FanGraphs RosterResource pegs Minnesota at about $111 million in 2026, and its early 2027 estimate is also around $111 million, including $47.3 million in projected arbitration salaries. That figure leaves out salaries for many younger players.
As our closer look at the payroll explains, filling those spots at the 2026 minimum creates a provisional baseline near $126 million before any additions, assuming the projected arbitration players stay and pending mutual options are declined.
From there, the recommendation is clear: Minnesota should push toward roughly $160 million. That would line up closely with its estimated $158 million payroll in 2023 and, under the current baseline assumptions, leave about $34 million for improvements.
That is a recommendation, not a reported ownership commitment. A $140 million budget would leave only about $14 million and force a painful choice between replacing Jeffers and fixing the bullpen.
The first priority should be catcher, whether that means bringing Jeffers back or finding a credible replacement. After that comes at least two reliable relievers.
Jeff Hoffman is under contract, but Anthony Banda is expected to miss roughly the first half of 2027, and the bullpen did not have dependable depth in 2026. Keeping Ryan and Lopez for a 2027 push would preserve a veteran top of the rotation while Bradley, Connor Prielipp, and other young pitchers continue to develop.
And this kind of spending should do more of the heavy lifting than trades involving Jenkins, Culpepper, or the best remaining prospects.
There is another path, and it has logic too. Minnesota gave up 797 runs in 2026, and the health of Buxton, Lopez, and Jenkins still brings real uncertainty.
Big money spent on the wrong veterans could clog the roster without solving the run-prevention problem. If the plan starts failing again, the Twins should still be able to pivot at the 2027 trade deadline.
Still, starting the winter by standing still would waste a rare overlap. Ryan, Lopez, Ober, and Kremer could all be gone after one more season.
Jenkins, Culpepper, and Bradley are already here. Ownership has also promised a higher standard.
The Twins should set a payroll that can buy immediate help, keep the best young talent in place, and give this group a real shot at winning the division in 2027.
In Other News...
Twins Prospects Are Already Raising A Bigger Arizona Fall League Question
The Twins sent eight players to the Arizona Fall League, and the assignment list says plenty about where the organization sees this group in its development. Most of the names are coming from Class-A or High-A, with infielder Kyle DeBarge the lone Double-A presence, a mix that gives Minnesota a chance to push some younger talent into a tougher setting before winter really sets in. DeBarge and outfielder Yasser Mercedes were in the Salt River lineup for the AFL opener and helped the Rafters roll to a 9-3 win, giving the Twins an early look at two players who have been on different tracks in the system.
What makes the setup interesting is the bigger question it raises about what the AFL is meant to solve for Minnesota this fall. This is usually a stage for prospects to face better pitching, sharpen routines and show whether they can handle a faster pace, but the Twins are leaning heavily on players who are still early in the climb. For a front office that has plenty of prospect context to work with already, the real value may come less from the scoreboard than from how these players respond to being challenged a little sooner than expected. [Read more 🡒]
Twins May Finally Make The Early Offseason Push Fans Wanted
The Twins are signaling that this winter could look a lot different from the usual slow burn around the holidays. Owner Tom Pohlad and GM Jeremy Zoll have both said Minnesota intends to be aggressive in the coming offseason, with a preference for getting business done early instead of waiting until late January or February when the market can narrow and opportunities can dry up.
For a club trying to build on the momentum it found at the trade deadline, the timing matters almost as much as the targets. The bullpen remains a clear area to address, and the front office is weighing both free agency and trades as it looks to improve the roster before a possible lockout on Dec. 1 complicates the calendar and, potentially, the clubs plans. [Read more 🡒]
Twins 2027 Outlook Already Puts One Long Term Pressure Point In Focus
Looking ahead to 2027, the Twins already have a few pressure points taking shape in the way their projected roster is expected to fit together. A baseline look at the clubs arbitration-eligible players and payroll picture suggests the front office will be juggling the usual tradeoffs, but the most pressing questions appear to be in the same familiar places: how much starting pitching depth will be available, who will handle first base, and how the bullpen will be pieced together.
Those issues are still a long way from being solved, which is part of why the discussion is more about planning than prediction at this stage. There are possible player moves and areas where the Twins could choose to invest, but for now the bigger takeaway is that the organization already has enough uncertainty on the horizon to make 2027 a meaningful checkpoint for the roster it is trying to build. [Read more 🡒]