Trade deadline buzz is starting to pick up, and one of the loudest names in the rumor mill is Padres closer Mason Miller. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune recently reported that San Diego is open to moving the All-Star right-hander, which is a pretty stunning turn for a pitcher who has been almost impossible to hit since landing in San Diego.
The appeal is obvious. Miller has become baseball’s premier closer in a hurry.
After a 0.77 ERA in the second half of last season, he’s backed it up with a 0.91 ERA over 40 innings this year, and he leads the majors with 25 saves. That’s the kind of late-inning force every contender would love to drop into the ninth inning.
But for the Twins, the fit just doesn’t make sense.
Minnesota has climbed back to .500 and sits with playoff odds of nearly 40 percent, a real step forward after the last two seasons went sideways. Still, there’s a big difference between being in the race and acting like one player can carry you deep into October.
Miller is the sort of addition teams make when they think they’re a true championship piece away. The Twins aren’t there.
The price alone is enough to stop the conversation. San Diego gave up a massive package to get Miller from the Athletics at last year’s deadline, headlined by consensus top-five prospect Leo De Vries.
If the Padres are willing to move him now, they are not going to settle for a light return. For Minnesota, that likely means starting with names like Walker Jenkins or Kaelen Culpepper.
That is a steep cost for any reliever, even one as dominant as Miller, especially for a club that isn’t even a lock to reach the postseason.
Then there’s the money.
Miller is making $4 million this season, but he’s already in the arbitration process, and that bill is going to rise fast. Saves carry a lot of weight in arbitration, and with his production, it’s easy to see him pushing well north of $10 million next year and climbing toward $20 million and beyond in later years.
The Twins could afford it in a technical sense. The real question is whether that’s the best way to use limited payroll flexibility.
That becomes even more complicated if San Diego tries to move Xander Bogaerts with Miller. Recent reports say the Padres have discussed attaching Bogaerts to a deal to clear the rest of his contract. He’s owed $25 million annually over each of the next seven seasons, and that’s a huge number for a 33-year-old who has underperformed.
For Minnesota, that would be a hard pass. The Twins are already carrying $10 million a year in dead money from Carlos Correa’s contract through 2028. Adding another long-term deal like Bogaerts’ would only tighten the squeeze on a roster that still has young players due for raises of their own.
None of that means the bullpen should be ignored. It needs help.
The Twins could absolutely use multiple reliable arms late in games. But that’s different from emptying the cabinet for one elite closer.
If Minnesota is going to swing big at the deadline, the move should come at a spot that changes games every day or every fifth day. A frontline starter or a real bat would move the needle far more than even the best closer in baseball.
Miller would be electric in a Twins uniform. There’s no doubt about that.
He’d instantly change the feel of the bullpen and make every lead look safer. But the cost in prospects, and eventually in dollars, doesn’t line up with where this team is right now.
The Twins are moving in the right direction. They’re just not one closer away.
In Other News...
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Another AL Threat Just Entered The Twins Trade Deadline Picture
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Joe Ryan is the headliner in that group, but Jeffers and Larnach also give the Twins options if the deadline market starts to heat up. With Tampa Bay and New York both circling the same roster, Minnesota may find itself dealing with more than one contender for the same pieces, and that kind of overlap can change the conversation quickly as July winds down. [Read more 🡒]