The Twins have spent most of this season living in the uncomfortable middle. They’re better than plenty of people expected, but not good enough to feel safe. They’re a few games under .500, stuck outside the American League playoff race, and now staring at a trade deadline that could go a lot of different ways.
That’s what makes Minnesota such a tricky case. On one hand, the front office has every reason to consider selling.
Payroll has been cut by about $50MM since the club’s last playoff trip in 2023, several key players are moving closer to free agency, and the Twins already sold at last summer’s deadline. On the other hand, new control person Tom Pohlad has been talking like someone who wants to win now, not tear things down.
Less than two weeks ago, he told the Twins beat:
“We’ve got to put a better product on the field. There does need to be an upfront investment made.
But when we make an investment, we have to be successful. We have to *****ing win.
If we do that, then people will come and it will all work.”
That doesn’t sound like a man eager to wave the white flag. It also doesn’t lock Minnesota into buying aggressively. The most likely path feels like something in between: moving a few short-term pieces while trying to add players who can help beyond this season.
The record backs up the uncertainty. Minnesota sits at 49-52, with 23.1% playoff odds, per FanGraphs.
And yet, for all the frustration around the standings, there has been real life in this team. Taj Bradley is having a breakout year.
Joe Ryan has been characteristically excellent. Ryan Jeffers, when healthy, has taken another step.
Brooks Lee and Luke Keaschall have both shown something. Trevor Larnach is having his best season.
Byron Buxton might even reach 40 home runs.
The problem is the bullpen. Minnesota traded five relievers from what was one of MLB’s best relief groups last summer, then did little to reinforce it over the winter.
The main additions were Taylor Rogers, Eric Orze and Anthony Banda. The result has been ugly: the bullpen has been among the worst in baseball, and arguably the worst of all.
With even a competent relief corps, the Twins might have been hanging around as a genuine surprise contender. Instead, they’ve been stuck a few games below .500 for months, and it’s not hard to imagine a better bullpen putting them on the right side of the line more often.
That brings the focus to the most interesting name on the board: Ryan Jeffers.
Jeffers is a rental, and he’s been excellent. He’s hitting .288/.401/.540 with a huge 15.6% walk rate that matches his 15.6% strikeout rate. A hamate fracture sidelined him for two months, but he has picked up immediately since coming back just before the All-Star break, posting a homer, two doubles, three walks and three strikeouts in 20 plate appearances.
For years, Jeffers has been one of the better-hitting catchers in the game. This season, though, he’s pushed into a new tier.
He’s 29, he’s a free agent after the year, and while his bat has always carried more weight than his glove, he has posted serviceable defensive grades in a small sample this season. He also gives a team flexibility because he has enough offense to live at DH more than behind the plate.
The Twins do have a possible answer ready if they decide to deal him. Victor Caratini was signed to a two-year deal over the winter, and from May 20 through July 9, while Jeffers was out, he hit .288/.364/.505.
That makes the decision even more delicate. Trading Jeffers would hurt the current team, but Minnesota could try to soften the blow by getting a big league reliever back who’s controlled beyond this season. Keeping him would make sense too, especially if the Twins can string together enough wins to improve their playoff odds.
There’s also the question of value. Jeffers has hit well enough to at least enter borderline qualifying offer territory.
If the bat holds, Minnesota could be looking at a player worth keeping. If it doesn’t, the Twins could wind up in the worst possible spot: not wanting to make a qualifying offer, then watching a good player leave for nothing.
It’s a tough call, and the deadline may hinge on which version of the Twins shows up over the next stretch.
In Other News...
Twins May Be Creating A Keaschall Problem They Cant Hide
Luke Keaschalls move from second base into the outfield has become one of the more interesting side projects on the Twins roster. Since June, Minnesota has tried him in right field and then in center during Byron Buxtons injury absence, and now that Buxton is back, Keaschall has settled again on the right side while the club keeps working to turn his athleticism into something usable in the grass.
The challenge is that the Twins are asking him to learn on the fly in a spot where mistakes are hard to hide. They have been shading him deeper in center to make the job easier as he develops, but that also changes the look of the defense and puts a spotlight on every read and route. Buxton can play shallower because of his elite range, and Keaschall is still trying to find the balance between protecting against balls over his head and being in position to attack the ones in front of him. [Read more 🡒]
Twins Could Lose Two Key Regulars If This Slide Gets Worse
A four-game skid has nudged the Twins farther from the American League Wild Card picture, and the timing matters with the Aug. 3 trade deadline closing in. Minnesota is sitting at 49-53, which is the kind of record that starts forcing difficult conversations about whether to push for a run or listen on established regulars while there is still value to be had.
Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach are the names to watch if the slide continues. Jeffers is in the final year of his deal and has drawn attention from clubs looking for catching help, while Larnach remains under team control through 2027 and could become expendable if the Twins decide their outfield depth gives them room to deal from strength. [Read more 🡒]
Joe Ryan Just Became The Twins Trust Test
Joe Ryan has become one of the most interesting names on the Twins board as the trade deadline approaches, and not just because of what he does on the mound. He has pitched well enough to draw attention from contenders, and with team control beyond this season, he is the kind of arm that can bring back real value if Minnesota decides the time is right to move him.
The harder question is what kind of message that would send to a fan base that has already watched attendance sag at Target Field and has little appetite for another summer selloff. The Twins can talk themselves into several paths with Ryan, including holding him, moving him later, or cashing in now, but any deadline decision will land with more weight than a typical roster shuffle. [Read more 🡒]