The Minnesota Twins are running out of margin fast.
A year ago, they were 58-67 and already out of the playoff chase. This season, they’re at 60-65, sitting six games behind the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central and 1.5 games out of the final American League Wild Card spot. The path is still open, but it’s narrowing in a hurry.
The numbers behind the standings paint a bleak picture. On Monday morning, Baseball-Reference gave Minnesota an 8.7% shot at the postseason, while FanGraphs had them at 19.7%. Once a team’s odds fall under 20%, the situation starts to feel pretty grim - and with only 37 games left, the Twins are staring at a compact race with almost no room for mistakes.
That’s a tough place to be after a deadline where the Twins acted like a team still trying to push forward. They bought, adding four arms to the rotation and bullpen.
But August has gone sideways anyway. Minnesota is 4-10 this month, and that marks a season-worst .286 winning percentage by month.
The latest low came in the form of a three-game sweep at the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies, making them the fourth National League club to sweep the Twins. That’s part of a bigger trend this year: the NL has controlled interleague play, holding a 310-259 edge over the AL.
And the timing for Minnesota could hardly be worse. The Twins have just three interleague series left on the schedule, and two of them arrive this week against the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres.
Both clubs are rolling. Atlanta is 9-5 in August, while San Diego is 11-4.
Both have also handled AL opponents all year long, with the Braves going 22-16 against the junior circuit and the Padres 24-15.
If Minnesota does anything worse than split these six games, the playoff outlook gets even shakier. The Twins enter those matchups five games under .500, which only raises the pressure on what’s ahead.
To even hang around in this race, Minnesota is going to need real production from both its offense and its rotation. Since the All-Star Break, the bats haven’t done nearly enough. The Twins rank 24th in MLB with 102 runs scored in that span, and they’re 23rd in slugging percentage at .375 and 22nd in OPS at .683.
The starting pitching has been even rougher. Over 139 innings since the break, Minnesota owns a 5.96 ERA, which ranks 29th in baseball. Their 4.85 FIP ranks 26th, and opponents are hitting .259 against them, 25th in MLB.
The math is straightforward enough from here. With 37 games left, the Twins need to go 22-15 just to get back to .500. Realistically, the postseason probably demands something closer to 24-13 in the crowded Wild Card race.
That makes this stretch against Atlanta and San Diego feel like a true proving ground, even with three games against the Athletics afterward offering a little breathing room. Minnesota has been streaky all year, but these final 37 games will require its hottest run yet if it wants to show it still belongs in the playoff conversation.
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The trouble is that the glove has not given the Twins a clean answer yet. Keaschall has struggled at second base and in the outfield, with negative Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved piling up, leaving the club to keep weighing how much offense it can carry while it searches for a long-term defensive home that still makes sense on the roster. [Read more 🡒]