The Twins may have a Ryan Jeffers problem on their hands.
Jeffers is coming off the best season of his career, one that saw him hit .256/.353/.461 with 14 homers and 56 RBI in 92 games. A hamate fracture in his left hand last May likely kept those numbers from climbing even higher, and he also backed up the offense with solid defense and a strong feel for MLB’s ABS Challenge System. That’s why he stands as the top catcher in this year’s free agent class.
Minnesota already put a qualifying offer worth $23.15 million on the table, but Jeffers could turn that down and chase a longer deal projected by FanGraphs at $16 million per season. If that happens, the Twins will need a new plan behind the plate.
There are a few different directions they could go, and not all of them look equally appealing.
At the bottom of the list is Victor Caratini, which says plenty. The Twins signed him to a two-year, $14 million deal before Derek Falvey “mutually parted ways” with the organization last January, but the return was modest: .220/.312/.315 with seven homers and 44 RBI in 106 games.
Caratini did offer value on defense, with a plus-4 mark in blocks above average and a plus-3 in pitch framing per Baseball Savant. Even so, plugging him in as the everyday answer would feel like a step down, even if the money saved could be redirected elsewhere.
A more intriguing trade target is Hunter Goodman. The Rockies catcher has put together a strong two-year run at the plate, hitting .262/.317/.525 with 72 homers and 179 RBI.
He also showed last season that he wasn’t just padding numbers at Coors Field, posting a better OPS on the road (.882) than at home (.791) while also homering more away from Denver, 25 to 16. The downside is the profile underneath the production: Goodman’s chase, whiff and strikeout rates are all much higher than Jeffers’, and his defense is only comparable, with a plus-1 in fielding run value.
Still, he’s under team control through 2029, and a pitcher such as Bailey Ober could be enough to get Colorado’s attention.
If Minnesota wants a free-agent route that doesn’t force it into a long commitment, Tyler Stephenson makes sense. FanGraphs projects him at $9 million per year, and he’s the same age as Jeffers at 30.
Offensively, he’s been steady, hitting .257/.335/.422 across seven seasons with the Reds and posting a career-best 2.5 WAR last year. The issue is that he’s much more effective against right-handers than left-handers, and pairing him with Caratini would be awkward given Caratini’s struggles against southpaws last season.
Stephenson could still work if the Twins reshuffle the rest of the catching mix, but the fit isn’t seamless.
Then there’s the wild card: Vahn Lackey. The third overall pick from last June’s draft probably spends a lot of time in the minors in 2027, but his first pro look offered enough to dream on.
He opened with 15 games at Low-A Fort Myers, where the bat was quiet at .204/.389/.370 with one homer and nine RBI, but the defense showed up right away as he threw out 6 of 20 potential basestealers, good for 23%, and earned a bump to Cedar Rapids. At High-A, the offense woke up in a hurry: 12-for-38, a .316 average, plus a double, two homers, seven RBI, 14 walks and eight strikeouts in 52 plate appearances.
He also hit .397/.519/.772 with 20 homers and 78 RBI in 61 games at Georgia Tech last season. If the minor league season goes on even through an expected MLB lockout, Lackey could keep climbing fast.
That leaves Carson Kelly at the top of the list. He’s not Jeffers, but he’s the closest thing to a ready-made replacement.
The 32-year-old hit .258/.336/.376 with 10 homers and 58 RBI in 120 games for the Cubs, and he’s two years removed from a 3.5 WAR season in 2025. A shorter contract would fit the Twins’ timeline better, especially if they want to leave room for Lackey.
The concern is that Kelly’s track record before arriving in Chicago was much lighter, with a .224/.307/.373 line and 54 homers over nine seasons, so there’s still risk in paying for the name and the recent spike.
The Twins have a real choice to make here. Bringing Jeffers back would solve the problem, but a four-year deal would carry him through his age-33 season.
Minnesota also has other young catchers in the pipeline, including Lackey, Eduardo Tait and Carson Tinney. If the organization believes that group is the future, Jeffers could walk, and Kelly might be the cleanest stopgap to bridge the gap.
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