The Twins’ season has drifted into a spot nobody in Minnesota wanted to imagine back in July: not just out of the race, but staring at the draft board.
Thursday night’s 5-4 loss to the Los Angeles Angels pushed the Twins to 71-82 and left them seven games behind the Cleveland Guardians for the final American League Wild Card spot. They’re not officially eliminated yet, but FanGraphs has them at a 0% chance to reach the playoffs.
That puts Minnesota in a strange place for the final stretch. The best thing for the club now, from a draft standpoint, is simple: lose.
All non-playoff teams this year will be part of the lottery for the top six picks, though the San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates are ineligible because of anti-tanking regulations. The Chicago White Sox are also ineligible, although they’re likely headed to the postseason anyway.
The current CBA expires on Dec. 1, and a new agreement could change how the draft works. There’s also the possibility of a lockout that stretches through the summer, which could wipe out the draft entirely. For now, though, the assumption is that 2027 will proceed without major changes.
Right now, the Twins are sitting in a crowded middle tier of the lottery picture. Their 71-82 record gives them a 39.6% chance to land in the top six and a 4.53% shot at the No. 1 pick. They’re grouped with the Washington Nationals at 71-82, the Cincinnati Reds at 71-82 and the Seattle Mariners at 71-82.
At the top of the board, the Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Angels and Athletics all sit at 87.9% to make the top six and 19.19% to grab the first overall pick. The Kansas City Royals follow at 73.5% for the top six and 11.63% for No. 1, while the New York Mets are at 63.2% and 8.72%.
Below Minnesota, the Detroit Tigers are at 72-81 with a 16.0% top-six chance, followed by the Baltimore Orioles and St. Louis Cardinals, both 75-78.
The Miami Marlins, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays and Arizona Diamondbacks round out the lower portion of the lottery eligible field. The Giants and Pirates, meanwhile, can’t rise above 10th.
It’s a rough outcome for a team that tried to bolster itself before the trade deadline. Minnesota brought in Jeff Hoffman and A.J.
Minter to strengthen the bullpen, added Tommy Nance as a solid reliever and got Dean Kremer for rotation depth. Those moves mostly held up, but they weren’t enough to stop the slide.
Injuries to Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan have played a major role in the collapse. With two of the club’s biggest stars unavailable, the Twins haven’t been able to keep pace.
And even when a postseason berth still seemed plausible, the ceiling looked limited. The American League is thin, but Minnesota would have had a hard road against the top three AL East teams, and the National League would have been even tougher beyond that. So while it’s a bitter ending, the draft position may be the one real silver lining.
If the Twins can turn that into another talent like catcher Vahn Lackey, their 2025 first-round pick, that would go a long way toward softening the blow.
In Other News...
Connor Prielipp Just Gave The Twins A New Pitching Question
Connor Prielipp gave the Twins another reminder that their pitching depth has real potential, turning in seven scoreless innings while allowing only two hits and piling up eight strikeouts. It fit neatly into a night when Walker Jenkins added a home run and Minnesota got help from multiple players and the bullpen in a win over the Angels, the kind of balanced effort that tends to stand out in a long season.
Joe Ryan is set to take the ball next against Reid Detmers as the series continues, but Prielipps outing adds a fresh wrinkle to the conversation around the Twins arms. When a performance like that comes from a young pitcher, it does more than help in the moment, it leaves the staff with another question to sort through as the schedule keeps moving. [Read more 🡒]
Twins Suddenly Face A Bigger Derek Shelton Question Than Expected
The Twins went into the trade deadline looking to bolster their pitching depth and make a real push toward a playoff berth, but the stretch run has instead been another reminder of how quickly a promising season can tilt the other way. Injuries have chipped away at the roster, the young core has shown flashes, and the September slide has left Minnesota searching for answers as much as results.
Derek Shelton is now part of that conversation in a way the Twins probably did not expect when they brought him in for his first season in Minnesota. The former Pirates manager arrived with a long track record but still no winning record in seven years as a big league skipper, and the way this team has stumbled since the deadline has only sharpened the focus on whether he can be the one to steady it when the pressure rises. [Read more 🡒]
Twins Prospects Are Giving Minnesota A Reason To Dream Again
For a club looking for a clearer path back into contention, the Twins next wave is starting to look like more than a distant idea. Shortstop Marek Houston has been one of the most encouraging names in the system, handling Double-A with the kind of all-around production that can change the tone around a farm system, while catcher Khadim Diaw and outfielder Hendry Mendez have also kept their stock moving in the right direction.
None of that guarantees an immediate impact, but it does give Minnesota something it has needed more of lately: believable upside. Houston, Diaw and Mendez are the kind of prospects who could spend the start of 2027 at Triple-A and still leave open the possibility of reaching the majors soon after, which is enough to make a rebuilding stretch feel a little less empty for Twins fans watching from afar. [Read more 🡒]