The Twins still have the kind of bullpen most teams would love to steal: power arms, strikeout stuff, and the ability to miss bats in bunches. The problem is that too often, Minnesota’s relievers are making life harder than it needs to be. Friday’s 5-2 win over the Chicago Cubs was the cleaner version of this group - the one that attacks the zone, gets ahead, and turns pressure spots into ordinary outs.
The raw stuff hasn’t gone anywhere. Since June 1, Twins relievers have averaged 94.0 mph on their fastballs and piled up 9.40 strikeouts per nine innings.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that the strike zone has become a moving target, and once the first runner gets on, the whole inning starts to wobble.
Minnesota’s bullpen has logged 128 1/3 innings since June 1, good for fourth-most in MLB. But the numbers underneath that workload tell the real story: 4.56 walks per nine innings, which ranks 28th, and 1.61 home runs allowed per nine, which sits 26th.
The Twins can still overpower hitters. They’re just handing out too many free passes and too many chances for one mistake to blow up a frame.
That loss of command didn’t hit all at once. It’s shown up in pockets, with a few relievers losing the control that had made the group so effective early on. Taylor Rogers and Justin Topa are two clear examples of how the bullpen’s foundation has cracked.
The biggest issue isn’t that hitters suddenly started squaring up better pitches. It’s that Minnesota has stopped getting ahead in counts.
Rogers went from no walks in May to seven walks per nine innings in June. Topa followed a similar path.
For a bullpen built on pressure, that’s a brutal shift. When the first pitch isn’t a strike, the whole plan changes.
And once the count tilts the wrong way, even elite stuff becomes less dangerous. The margin disappears. The bullpen’s collective -0.3 WAR reflects that split between the arms still holding the line and the ones turning manageable innings into problems.
The Twins also took a hit to their depth when Anthony Banda, who had posted a 1.93 ERA, underwent surgery to repair a left lat injury. With more options unavailable, the group has had less flexibility when the game tightens up.
That has left Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gómez as two of the key arms keeping the bullpen afloat.
Morris is the template Minnesota wants more of. He’s not just bringing heat - his fastball averages 97.5 mph - he’s also getting ahead and forcing hitters to react. He posted a 2.20 FIP in June and has thrown nine scoreless innings in July while walking just 1.00 per nine innings.
Gómez has produced, too. He owns a 2.25 ERA and has stranded 83.3% of baserunners. But the underlying numbers suggest he’s living close to the edge, with a 4.19 xERA and 5.31 xFIP that leave little room for error.
Then there’s Justin Lawrence, who shows the other side of the equation. The strikeout stuff is still there - 10.50 K/9 - but the command hasn’t matched it.
Since June 1, he has an 18.00 ERA, 13.50 BB/9, and 6.00 HR/9. That’s the kind of line that turns every appearance into a gamble.
That divide is the heart of Minnesota’s bullpen problem. The talent is real.
The velocity is real. The swing-and-miss ability is real.
What’s missing is the control that makes those tools matter.
The advanced metrics back that up, too. Since June 1, the bullpen has a .306 BABIP, which doesn’t point to some terrible run of bad luck on balls in play.
Instead, the bigger issue is how often the Twins are putting runners on base before the contact even happens. Their 5.89 ERA compared with a 4.18 xERA points to sequencing trouble - too many baserunners, too many stressful innings, too many mistakes at the wrong time.
Walks pile on the pressure. Home runs with runners aboard swing games.
Friday’s win showed the better version of this group is still in there somewhere. The Twins don’t need to reinvent the bullpen. They need it to throw strikes again, and to do it consistently enough that all that power starts playing the way it should.
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Winokurs profile is still developing, but it is the kind of profile that can start to matter quickly for a club trying to build depth without losing upside. He has played third base, shortstop, center field, right field and left field in the minors, which gives the Twins options as they map out the next few seasons. Add in the fact that he is still years away from a projected big-league arrival, and he becomes the sort of prospect whose progress can shape more than just the farm system. [Read more 🡒]