Twins Are Asking Too Much From A Bullpen That Finally Stepped Up

As the Twins' bullpen steps up to the challenge, it's now up to the rotation and lineup to keep playoff hopes alive without any new additions.

The Twins made their big bullpen move, but the real test still sits elsewhere.

Jeff Hoffman and A.J. Minter give Minnesota a relief corps that, for the moment, looks like a strength.

That’s a notable turn for a unit that was expected to struggle after last year’s deadline purge and a quiet offseason. Since the start of July, Twins relievers have ranked 10th among MLB teams in fWAR, fifth in ERA and ninth in Win Probability Added.

The rest of the roster hasn’t matched that run: the starters sit 21st in WAR, 23rd in ERA and 21st in WPA, while the offense is 21st in WAR, 19th in wOBA and sixth in WPA. Timely hitting has kept the lineup afloat.

Even before the bullpen additions, it was fair to wonder whether Minnesota’s rotation or offense inspired more confidence than its relief group. In some ways, the answer was yes.

The rotation picture has thinned badly. Joe Ryan is openly battling arm fatigue while slipping into the second-half pattern that’s become familiar.

Bailey Ober is averaging 87 MPH with his fastball. Connor Prielipp is already pushing into unprecedented workload territory as he approaches 100 innings.

Dean Kremer arrives with a 6.50 ERA and is hoping to drift back toward his career norm of mediocrity. Zebby Matthews has been optioned to the minors for now after posting a 5.22 ERA this year and a 5.64 mark for his career.

Pablo López, Mick Abel and David Festa are all out for the season.

Among the current mix, Taj Bradley stands out as the one starter drawing a lot of confidence, and even that comes with a turbulent track record attached. What once looked like a deep, sturdy group has been chipped away to the point where Kremer can be viewed as a meaningful upgrade. It also leaves open the possibility that Minnesota may look back in two months wishing it had added one more starter for the front of the rotation.

The offense brings a little more optimism, though not without warning signs. The Twins still lead the American League in runs scored, but that number comes with some noise.

Minnesota hitters are first in baseball in OPS with runners in scoring position, and that kind of production tends to inflate the scoring column. The gap between the overall numbers and the RISP numbers is a clear regression signal, and recent weeks have started to reflect that.

The lineup has gone quiet for long stretches, and since the break the Twins rank 21st in runs scored - the same spot they occupy in season-long hitting WAR.

The front office didn’t add a position player, but it also didn’t subtract one. In that sense, keeping the group intact was its own kind of bet on the offense.

Trevor Larnach and Ryan Jeffers have been Minnesota’s two best hitters outside of the injured Byron Buxton, and both were the sort of players who could have been moved. Instead, the Twins held onto them, choosing stability in the lineup over whatever future value might have come from a deal.

That leaves the club asking its own roster to solve the biggest problems. There won’t be outside help arriving to rescue a rotation that has thinned out or an offense that has cooled after carrying the team for much of the season. It’s not the flashiest route, but it does make sense.

Front offices can’t chase the last three weeks. A month ago, the bullpen looked like one of the sport’s biggest liabilities; now it looks like a strength. Relief pitching changes fast, and Jeremy Zoll and company were clearly trying to protect themselves from what usually comes next.

If Hoffman and Minter end up being the difference, the move will look sharp. The bigger question is whether the starters and hitters can find enough on their own without the same kind of reinforcement.

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There was also a practical side to that decision, and a human one. Tom Pohlad and GM Jeremy Zoll were mindful of how fans and the clubhouse reacted to last years deadline fire sale, when subtraction came first and the mood around the team turned quickly. Keeping Jeffers made sense on the field and in the room, especially with the kind of outside interest he drew, and it fit the broader push to make the roster better rather than strip it down. [Read more 🡒]

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Former Twins Are On The Move Again And One Name Really Stings

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Ben Rortvedt was one of the latest to change uniforms, going from the Mets to the Dodgers, while the broader movement around ex-Twins has only sharpened the sense that these pieces never stop circulating. For Minnesota, it is another small window into the constant churn of roster building and the occasional sting of seeing a player it once had in hand turn into a movable part somewhere else. [Read more 🡒]