Taj Bradley’s 2026 Outlook: Can the Twins Unlock His Potential as a Starter?
When the Minnesota Twins pulled the trigger on their 2025 deadline deal for Taj Bradley, it was clear they were betting on upside. A former top-100 prospect with electric raw stuff, Bradley came over from Tampa Bay in exchange for Griffin Jax-a move that signaled Minnesota’s willingness to roll the dice on a high-variance arm. But after a rocky finish to the season, the question now is this: Can Bradley stick in the rotation, or is a bullpen role looming?
A Mixed Bag in 2025
Bradley’s first stint in a Twins uniform was, in a word, uneven. He posted a 5.05 ERA over a career-high 142 2/3 innings.
That’s not what you want from a midseason acquisition expected to help stabilize a rotation. But the underlying numbers offer a bit more optimism.
His 4.37 xFIP suggests he ran into some bad luck-something that’s been a theme throughout his young career.
Still, the ERA and the eye test both point to a pitcher who hasn’t quite figured out how to consistently harness his stuff. And that’s where the conversation about his future role begins to take shape.
What’s in the Toolbox?
Bradley doesn’t lack for weapons. He leans on a four-pitch mix-four-seamer, cutter, splitter, and curveball-with the occasional sinker thrown in.
Like most right-handers, he tailors his pitch usage based on the handedness of the hitter. In 2025, he threw fastballs, cutters, and curveballs to righties, while lefties saw more fastballs, splitters, and curves.
Interestingly, Baseball Savant classified nearly 200 of his fastballs to righties as sinkers, indicating he’ll occasionally tweak his grip to generate more horizontal movement.
On paper, his fastball should be a weapon. It sits in the mid-90s and can touch triple digits, with 18.5 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) and 6.2 inches of horizontal movement. That kind of ride should make it a whiff machine at the top of the zone.
But here’s the rub: it hasn’t been. Not even close.
The Fastball Problem
Despite the velocity and movement profile, Bradley’s four-seamer has been consistently hit hard. Opponents have posted an eye-popping .896 OPS against it across nearly 3,000 pitches in the majors.
That ranks 371st out of 419 qualified fastballs since his debut in 2023. That’s not just underwhelming-it’s a liability.
Even his sinker, though thrown less frequently, hasn’t fared much better. While it’s shown flashes (.756 OPS over 192 pitches), the sample size is too small to draw firm conclusions. What is clear is that Bradley’s fastball-his most-used pitch-has been his least effective.
The Secondary Weapons: A Different Story
Here’s where things get interesting. The rest of Bradley’s arsenal has actually performed quite well:
- Cutter: .711 OPS over nearly 1,500 pitches. Not elite, but solid.
- Splitter: .597 OPS across 1,216 offerings. That’ll play.
- Curveball: .454 OPS in 844 pitches. That’s elite territory.
The curve, in particular, is a standout. It comes in at 82 mph with 55.8 inches of vertical drop (including gravity)-about four inches more than league average.
It tunnels well off his fastball and has been his most consistent bat-misser. It’s not a stretch to call it one of the better curves in the game.
So why not throw it more?
That’s the million-dollar question. A tweak in pitch mix-more curves and cutters, fewer fastballs-could be the key to unlocking a more effective version of Bradley.
Even if the cutter’s movement profile isn’t elite (it’s got decent glove-side break but below-average IVB), it’s still produced much better results than the fastball. And the curveball?
That pitch should be a featured weapon, not a secondary option.
The Statistical Snapshot
Let’s zoom out. Over his MLB career, Bradley has shown:
- A declining strikeout rate (from 28.0% as a rookie to 21.0% in 2025)
- A rising walk rate (from 8.5% to 9.3%)
- A troubling .896 OPS against his fastball
- Strong results from his splitter, cutter, and especially his curve
Against right-handed hitters-who should, in theory, be easier for a righty like Bradley-he’s allowed a .754 OPS with a 15.2% K-BB%. Lefties have actually fared slightly worse (.730 OPS, 17.4% K-BB%). That’s a strange split and one that suggests he’s not maximizing his pitch mix based on matchups.
So, What’s Next?
From a pure stuff perspective, Bradley still profiles as a starter. He’s got three secondary pitches that have all shown above-average results, and he’s capable of missing bats when he’s commanding the zone. But the margin for error is shrinking.
If 2026 doesn’t bring a step forward-particularly in terms of command and pitch selection-it could be his last shot at sticking in a rotation. The tools are there. The results, so far, haven’t followed.
But if the Twins can help him lean into what works-more curves, more cutters, fewer fastballs-there’s still a path for Bradley to become the mid-rotation arm they hoped for when they made the deal. It’s not about reinventing the wheel. It’s about using the right parts more often.