Trevor Larnach’s grip on a Twins roster spot is looking a lot less secure than it did a few months ago.
That would have sounded wild last winter, when a non-tender seemed like a real possibility after another uneven year and the Twins had already piled up left-handed-hitting outfielders. Instead, Minnesota kept him around, and for a while that decision looked smart. Larnach gave the club an .812 OPS through July and put together the most sustained stretch of production he’s managed in 2026.
But August has changed the conversation fast. Larnach has cratered to a .148/.207/.259 line this month, and his playing time is slipping as the Twins slide further out of contention. The club isn’t mathematically finished, but the way it’s trimming his role suggests plenty about where he stands both now and moving forward.
Larnach was always billed as a bat-first slugger with defensive limitations. The problem is that the power part has never really arrived; his career slugging percentage sits just over .400.
That lack of offensive growth made the decision to tender him last winter a little surprising, especially given the Twins’ crowded mix of left-handed outfielders. He’s been due for a real raise all season, and that matters now.
Larnach is arbitration-eligible for the last time this winter, and he’ll go from making $4.475 million this season to a much more expensive number next year.
That’s where the roster picture starts getting messy. Alan Roden has already started taking bites out of Larnach’s workload, and at minimum Roden brings much better defense in the corner outfield.
His bat hasn’t done much yet, but part of that is tied to inconsistent playing time. There’s still a believable path where he matches Larnach’s production if he gets a real run.
Roden will be 27 years old in 2027, and if he does enough over the final stretch, the Twins could decide that’s reason enough to spend Larnach’s salary somewhere else.
Then there’s Walker Jenkins, who doesn’t need much introduction around here. He can handle center field if Byron Buxton isn’t healthy, and the Twins are going to find him at-bats one way or another in 2027. Jenkins is the organization’s top prospect and one of the best in baseball, and if Minnesota can’t carve out playing time for him without Larnach in the picture, that’s a pretty clear sign of which outfielder is expendable.
Emmanuel Rodriguez adds another wrinkle. He’s back in the Saints’ lineup after injuries have knocked him off track almost every season, and he’s out of options next year.
That means he’ll have to break camp on the Opening Day roster to remain in the organization. Rodriguez still comes with obvious questions, but his talent is intriguing enough that the Twins are likely to give him a real shot to translate it at the big-league level.
Put all of that together, and the math gets ugly for Larnach. Minnesota has multiple left-handed outfield options coming, and not nearly enough everyday reps to go around if Larnach is still in the mix. And the uncomfortable part for him is that none of Roden, Jenkins or Rodriguez are sure things - but Larnach may not be one either.
What happens the rest of 2026 may decide everything. If Roden keeps performing or Jenkins arrives, Larnach could be pushed out of an everyday role entirely.
If the Twins drift farther away and decide a non-tender is coming, they won’t have much incentive to keep feeding him plate appearances. There’s even a scenario where they want to use the final weeks to get a longer look at Rodriguez instead.
Minnesota has choices. That’s the problem for Larnach.
In Other News...
Twins Prospect Performances Just Put More Pressure On The Depth Chart
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For Minnesota, the larger takeaway is less about one box score and more about the steady drumbeat of useful performances across the affiliates. When prospects keep showing they can handle tougher competition, the conversation shifts quickly from development to opportunity, and that is where the pressure starts to build on the players already occupying those spots. Quiones rehab assignment adds another layer to that mix, even if the bigger picture is still unfolding. [Read more 🡒]
Walker Jenkins Decision Will Show Twins Fans What Really Changed
Walker Jenkins is doing everything a top prospect is supposed to do in Triple-A, yet the Twins still have not brought him to the majors. For a club that has already shuffled pieces around by promoting Kaelen Culpepper and adding pitching at the trade deadline, the delay says plenty about where Minnesota is trying to place its bets as the season turns toward the stretch run.
The Twins remain on the outside of the playoff race, which makes every roster decision feel more revealing than routine. Jenkins sits right at the intersection of development, service time and the clubs competitive reality, and how Minnesota handles him from here should tell fans whether the front office is leaning more toward the future or trying to squeeze every last bit out of the present. [Read more 🡒]
Twins Suddenly Face A Big Byron Buxton Decision
Byron Buxtons latest setback has put the Twins right back in familiar territory, waiting on the status of one of their most important players after he was pulled from a game because of discomfort in his right hip. For now, Minnesota has not made any roster moves, and the club was still holding off on a decision as of Wednesday while Buxtons condition is monitored.
The timing adds another layer for a team that has already spent plenty of energy managing health and depth across the roster. Joe Ryan took another step in his rehab by throwing live batting practice, while Vahn Lackey kept making noise in the system with a second straight homer after his promotion to High-A Cedar Rapids, but all eyes remain on Buxton and what the Twins decide next. [Read more 🡒]