June has been a challenging month for Eric Orze, the Twins' reliever who joined the team from the Tampa Bay Rays during the offseason. In just under ten innings over ten appearances this month, the 28-year-old right-hander has been struggling with a 9.31 ERA, surrendering 15 hits and issuing five walks. For the season, Orze's numbers aren't much prettier, with a 5.35 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP across 37 innings.
Now, it's easy to write off Orze's season as a lost cause, given his less-than-stellar strikeout rate of 18.8% and a walk rate of 10.6%. But here's where things get interesting: his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) stands at a solid 3.27, and his expected ERA is 3.75, indicating that perhaps luck hasn't been on his side.
He's only allowed one home run and boasts an elite average exit velocity of 85.9 mph, placing him in the 94th percentile. These stats suggest that Orze might just be a victim of baseball's fickle nature.
Looking back at last year with the Rays, Orze's strikeout rate was slightly better at 22.4%, and his walk rate was nearly identical. Yet, his FIP was worse at 4.05, even though he managed a much more impressive 3.02 ERA over 41 2/3 innings.
This paints a picture of a pitcher who knows how to induce weak contact, a skill that the Twins were undoubtedly aware of when they picked him up. Patience might be the key here, as the underlying metrics hint that Orze could turn things around if given the chance.
The Twins' bullpen, however, is a glaring issue for a team looking to stay in the playoff hunt. Ranked near the bottom of the league in several categories-29th in ERA at 5.51, 27th in strikeout rate at 20.0%, 28th in walk rate at 11.7%, and 28th in opponent batting average at .262-it's clear that improvements are necessary.
While the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline looms, and selling seems likely, the Twins have a strong rotation led by Joe Ryan and one of the top offenses in the American League.
It's not outlandish to think they'd be in a playoff spot if their bullpen was merely average.
Despite the bullpen's woes, Orze shouldn't be hastily discarded. If his struggles persist over the next month, a stint in Triple-A could be a viable option, as he still has a minor-league option available. But for now, the Twins might do well to ride the wave with Orze, banking on those promising metrics to eventually translate into on-field success.
In Other News...
Twins Lose One Of Their Few Bullpen Answers At Worst Time
Anthony Banda had become one of the more dependable arms the Twins could lean on out of the bullpen, which is what made his exit in Colorado sting even before the club had to sort out the roster move. Minnesota is already piecing together relief innings from a group that has been too inconsistent for comfort, so losing one of the few pitchers who had provided real stability only narrows the margin for error.
Cody Laweryson was summoned from Triple-A St. Paul to take Bandas spot, giving the Twins another look at a depth option as they try to navigate a bullpen that has been under pressure for weeks. With a tough stretch ahead, the bigger question is how Minnesota covers the innings Banda had been handling and whether the current relief mix can hold up long enough for help to emerge. [Read more 🡒]
Former Twins Arm Chris Paddack Gets Another Shot With A Contender
Chris Paddacks season has already turned into a tour of attrition, and the latest stop is another reminder of how quickly a veteran arm can become a depth solution in July. After time with the Marlins, Tigers and Reds, the former Twins right-hander is now working toward his next opportunity after Cincinnati moved on, leaving him looking for a way back into a rotation and a chance to stabilize a career that has been interrupted by injuries and uneven results.
The appeal for his new club is straightforward: there is a need for innings, and Paddack still has enough track record to be considered for a starting role. Injuries and recovery timelines have thinned the pitching staff, so the door is open for him to step into meaningful starts if the contract gets finalized and the fit holds up. [Read more 🡒]
The Next Five Weeks Could Define This Twins Season
Midway through a season that has felt equal parts promising and precarious, the Twins have put themselves within striking distance of the final American League Wild Card spot while still leaving plenty of doubt about whether they belong in the race for the long haul. Their offense and starting pitching have given them enough of a foundation to stay relevant, but a 39-45 record and a spot 2.5 games back also make the margin for error awfully thin as the calendar turns toward August.
With the trade deadline set for Aug. 3, the next five weeks are shaping up as a test of conviction as much as performance. Minnesota has to decide whether this is a team worth reinforcing for a push or one that needs to consider a different path, especially with the bullpen still unstable, injuries clouding the pitching staff and the club not yet looking fully settled enough to call itself a true contender. [Read more 🡒]