The Minnesota Twins are entering the 2026 season with expectations at rock bottom, a stark contrast to the optimism that once surrounded the team. Following a series of setbacks, including payroll cuts and trade deadline sell-offs, fans are understandably frustrated. Since breaking a two-decade playoff drought in 2023, the team has struggled to maintain momentum, leading to a sense of directionlessness.
Projections aren’t painting a brighter picture, either. FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus have both pegged the Twins at 78 wins, marking their lowest outlook since 2017. BetMGM is even less optimistic, setting the over/under at 72.5 wins, a figure reminiscent of the team’s struggles in 2015.
However, history offers a glimmer of hope. In both 2015 and 2017, the Twins defied bleak projections to post winning records.
Paul Molitor’s leadership in 2015 led to a notable 13-game improvement, and in 2017, under Derek Falvey, the team surged to an 85-77 finish and a playoff berth. Could 2026 be another year of unexpected success?
Last season’s 70-92 record was misleading in some ways. Before the trade deadline, the team was on pace for a less disastrous 85-loss season. But after trading key players like Carlos Correa, the Twins’ performance nosedived, playing at a 105-loss pace in the final months.
Offseason changes have been more about leadership than roster upgrades. Derek Shelton returns as manager, replacing Rocco Baldelli, while Jeremy Zoll steps into the GM role after Falvey's departure. Ownership has also shifted, with Tom Pohlad taking over, promising a competitive season despite a payroll that’s $75 million below the league average.
The offseason was quiet in terms of major acquisitions. The Twins added journeyman players Josh Bell and Victor Caratini, but the bullpen remains largely unchanged. Despite leadership changes, the team seems to be in a holding pattern, lacking substantial roster improvements.
Optimism from the front office centers on starting pitching depth, with names like Pablo López and Joe Ryan leading the rotation. However, injuries have already struck, with López out for the season and Festa facing shoulder issues. This has left the rotation looking average, with projections ranking it 15th in the league.
While the lineup might have some potential, the bullpen appears shaky. Projections rank the bullpen 20th and the lineup 22nd, underscoring the challenges ahead. Despite Tom Pohlad’s optimistic outlook, the reality suggests a team struggling to find its footing.
Yet, baseball is unpredictable. The Twins have surprised before, and while the odds seem stacked against them, the game always leaves room for unexpected twists. It’s a long season, and anything can happen.