The Minnesota Twins are coming off a rough 2025 season, but if you’re looking for a glimmer of hope heading into 2026, FanGraphs has offered one: an early projection of 82 wins. That’s not playoff-lock territory, but it’s a 12-win bump from last year’s 70-92 finish - and enough to at least put them in the conversation for a Wild Card spot. After the way things unraveled last season, that kind of improvement would be more than welcome in the Twin Cities.
Now, let’s be clear: December projections are far from a crystal ball. They’re a useful baseline, not a guarantee.
But they do offer a league-wide snapshot that helps put a team’s offseason outlook into perspective. And in the Twins’ case, that snapshot has often been rosier than reality.
FanGraphs, for instance, projected the Twins to win 84 games in 2025. They ended up 14 games short, the biggest miss in the American League.
That wasn’t an outlier, either - over the past five seasons, Minnesota has fallen short of FanGraphs’ projections four times, missing by a combined 32 wins. That averages out to about 6.4 wins per year, which is no small margin.
So, should Twins fans take the 82-win projection with a grain of salt? Maybe. But more than anything, it highlights how unpredictable this team has been - something even team president Derek Falvey acknowledged during his end-of-season press conference.
“There are external measures we look at, that you all look at,” Falvey said back on September 30. “Those matched [our internal projections], for the most part. So it’s not about us evaluating how we were so different than what the public sphere felt of us.”
He’s not wrong. FanGraphs had them at 84 wins.
Baseball Prospectus was even more bullish at 86. BetMGM set the over/under at 83.5.
Internally, the Twins believed they had a real shot to compete in the AL Central. But like the projections, that belief didn’t hold up over 162 games.
Fast forward to today, and that 82-80 projection for 2026 lands in a strange place. Optimistic fans might see it as a sign of progress.
Pessimists might roll their eyes and point to the last five years. And with trade rumors swirling around key pitchers like Joe Ryan and Pablo López, it’s fair to say this number could shift significantly before Opening Day.
New Faces in the Clubhouse
As the offseason gets rolling, the Twins have already made a few under-the-radar additions: catcher Alex Jackson, utility man Ryan Kreidler, and reliever Eric Orze. These aren’t splashy moves, but they do give us a look at how the front office is trying to patch holes on a budget.
Let’s start behind the plate. Jackson, 29, is a career .153 hitter in the majors, but he’s likely to open 2026 as the backup catcher after being acquired from the Orioles in exchange for minor league utility man Payton Eeles. That move also comes with a projected $1.8 million arbitration salary.
The appeal with Jackson is his defense and power potential. He hit five homers in 91 at-bats for Baltimore last season and has shown some pop at Triple-A. FanGraphs projects a .208 average and .649 OPS - modest numbers, but still an upgrade over Christian Vázquez, who hit .215 with a .577 OPS during his time in Minnesota.
Then there’s Kreidler, a 28-year-old infielder claimed off waivers from Detroit. Offensively, he’s struggled even more than Jackson, batting just .138 in 89 big-league games.
His Triple-A numbers haven’t been much better, but he does offer defensive versatility - a trait the Twins value in bench players. FanGraphs isn’t optimistic, projecting a .194 average and .588 OPS.
For context, Ryan Fitzgerald, another utility option on the 40-man roster, is projected to hit .219 with a .650 OPS.
Eeles, now with Baltimore, is projected to hit .233 with a .649 OPS - not a massive gap, but enough to question whether the Twins might’ve given up the better bat in that swap.
In the bullpen, Orze could be a sneaky addition. The 28-year-old right-hander came over in a low-profile trade with Tampa Bay and currently projects as the Twins’ fourth-best reliever, behind Cole Sands, Kody Funderburk, and Justin Topa. FanGraphs pegs him for a 4.11 ERA across 63 innings - solid middle-relief numbers.
Of course, the hope is that Orze ends up being more of a depth piece than a high-leverage arm. The Twins still need to add at least a couple of veteran relievers to stabilize the late innings. But in the meantime, Orze gives them something they lacked far too often last season: a reliable, MLB-ready arm.
Looking for First-Base Help
The November non-tender deadline always brings a second wave of free agents, and this year was no different. The Twins held onto Trevor Larnach, avoiding a potential non-tender, but the expanded free-agent pool could still offer some intriguing options - especially at first base.
Right now, Kody Clemens sits atop the first-base depth chart. He had his moments last season, but his 96 OPS+ suggests he’s better suited as a bench piece. Fortunately, there’s no shortage of affordable options available.
One name that jumps out is Nathaniel Lowe. He struggled early in 2025 with the Nationals, but turned things around after landing with the Red Sox in August, hitting .280/.370/.420 with a 121 OPS+ in 34 games. That’s more in line with his career track record - .272/.356/.433 with a 121 OPS+ entering last season.
Lowe’s projected $13.5 million arbitration salary made him a non-tender candidate, but at a lower price point, he could be a solid addition for a Twins team that needs more left-handed thump. He’s not alone, either. The first-base market includes mid-tier options like Ryan O’Hearn, Josh Bell, Rhys Hoskins, Paul Goldschmidt, Luis Arraez, and Miguel Andujar.
The Twins don’t need to break the bank here - they just need someone who can give them consistent, league-average production with a bit of power. Lowe checks that box, and then some. Clemens is still worth keeping around as a cheap backup, but the opportunity to upgrade is obvious.
What’s Next?
The Twins are still in the early stages of their offseason, and the roster - especially with trade rumors in the air - is far from set. But the early moves and projections give us a sense of where things stand: a team trying to bounce back from a disappointing year, working with limited resources, and hoping that internal growth and a few savvy additions can push them back into contention.
An 82-80 projection doesn’t guarantee anything. But it does suggest that the floor isn’t as low as it felt at the end of 2025 - and that with the right moves, the ceiling might be higher than expected.