The Twins could end up with a very real trade decision on their hands this offseason, and Joe Ryan sits right at the center of it.
Minnesota has a pileup coming in the rotation by 2027, which is why Ryan is a name to keep an eye on as he heads into his final year of arbitration. He has become one of the club’s better starters over the last several seasons, but the late-season slide has made his long-term future in Minnesota harder to read. That is where the possibility of a trade starts to take shape.
The San Francisco Giants stand out as a logical match. If the Twins decide Ryan is more valuable as an asset than as part of their future rotation, they could look to turn him into help elsewhere on the roster or in the minors. For San Francisco, it would mean deciding whether to pay up with major prospects or established talent for a two-time All Star with one year of control left.
Ryan’s track record is still strong enough to draw plenty of interest. Through six seasons with Minnesota, he has produced 13.7 career fWAR and posted a 3.79 ERA with a 3.80 FIP across 786. total innings.
The concern is the split that keeps popping up: a 3.17 career ERA in the first half, followed by a 4.98 mark in the second half. In 2026, that gap got even more extreme, with his ERA jumping from 2.85 before the All-Star break to 6.82 after it.
Even so, there is still plenty to like about him when he’s right, and new pitching coach Brian Reith may be able to help him hold that effectiveness later into the season.
The Giants also happen to have a built-in tie to Ryan. He grew up in San Francisco, so a move there would bring the 30-year-old back home. San Francisco also drafted him in the 39th round of the 2014 MLB draft before he went to college, though Ryan never signed and was later taken by Tampa Bay in the 7th round four years later.
From the Giants’ side, the need is obvious. Beyond Logan Webb, their 2026 rotation has been thinned out by injuries and trades. Robbie Ray and Tyler Mahle were dealt to the Padres and Braves respectively at the deadline, and several young arms - Carson Whisenhunt, Blade Tidwell, Hayden Birdsong, and Trevor McDonald - suffered significant elbow injuries in 2026.
That kind of situation could push Buster Posey to act. The President of Baseball Operations has already shown a willingness to go big, signing Willy Adames to the largest contract in team history and trading for Rafael Devers in 2025.
Another aggressive move this offseason would not be out of character, especially if it means adding a starter to work behind Webb in a tough N.L. West.
For Minnesota, the equation is just as crowded. Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and Taj Bradley would be the obvious top three in 2027, but there are more candidates than spots.
Bailey Ober, Zebby Matthews, Deam Kremer, Connor Prielipp, Mick Abel, and Kendry Rojas could all factor into the mix as well. If the Twins are not planning to extend Ryan, the argument for moving him now gets stronger.
The return could be meaningful. MLB.com ranks the Giants’ farm system fifth, and the organization has five top-100 prospects, including the recent #4 overall draft pick, starting pitcher Jackson Flora. That kind of depth gives San Francisco enough ammunition to make a serious offer.
A recent trade for Tarik Skubal at the deadline - a rental deal that brought back three prospects, two of them top-100 talents - offers a rough template for what a pitcher like Ryan might command. Ryan is not at Skubal’s level, but he would come with a full year of control instead of two months, which should keep the price substantial. If Minnesota were to deal him to San Francisco, the return should include at least one top-100 prospect and additional pieces.
On paper, it fits. The Giants have the prospect capital, and the Twins may not be planning to keep Ryan anyway.
His second-half issues complicate the picture, but his reputation as a frontline starter and his price tag under $10 million still make him a useful trade chip. If Posey wants to make a splash and give Giants fans a boost, bringing Ryan home could be the move that makes sense.
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