Joe Ryan’s projected arbitration salary for 2027 is setting up one of those front-office decisions the Twins can’t really duck. MLB Trade Rumors has him pegged at about $9.6 million, a jump from the $6.2 million he made in 2025, and in a winter market for starting pitching that number stands out fast.
That price tag matters because Ryan isn’t just another arm. If he were sitting in the 2026-27 free-agent class, there’s a real case that he’d be near the top of the board - maybe second overall, and at worst no lower than fifth.
The pitchers ahead of him are going to cost a lot more. Tarik Skubal is headed for a massive multi-year deal that could top $400 million.
Freddy Peralta, Michael King, Framber Valdez and Kevin Gausman should all draw plenty of interest, and while only Valdez is expected to approach a nine-figure contract, any of them could land at $20 million per year or more.
Ryan doesn’t come with that kind of commitment. A team could trade for him, pay roughly $10 million for one season, and avoid the risk of handing out a four-, five- or six-year free-agent deal.
That’s exactly why his projected salary cuts both ways for Minnesota: it makes him more valuable to the Twins, but also more appealing to other clubs. Jeremy Zoll is going to get calls.
The Twins, though, do have reasons to hold tight. Their 2027 rotation still has plenty of uncertainty.
There are young pitchers who might emerge, but there are also durability questions and several arms who feel more like long-term bets than sure things. Ryan is the steady piece in the middle of that picture.
He’s been one of the organization’s most reliable starters, and the strikeout ability is a big reason why. FanGraphs has valued him at more than $17 million in every big-league season since his rookie year. That kind of production isn’t easy to replace internally, and Minnesota can’t just move him for a couple of prospects and call it a day.
If the Twins deal him, it should be for a return that helps them now and later. Anything less doesn’t really fit the value he brings on the mound.
But there’s a catch: his second-half struggles have already complicated the conversation. They give Minnesota a reason to consider moving him, while also making it harder to get a huge return.
For another team, the appeal is easy to see. You can pay one of the top free-agent starters somewhere between $19 million and $35 million per year and hope the health holds up.
Or you can trade for Ryan and get him for less than $10 million in 2027. That’s not cheap in a vacuum, but baseball isn’t played in a vacuum.
The alternatives are expensive, and plenty of them come with their own warning labels.
That leaves the Twins with the real question: if they want to compete in 2027, Ryan makes plenty of sense as part of the plan. If they’re leaning harder toward reshaping the roster around a younger core, he may be one of their best trade chips.
His projected salary doesn’t make the answer easier. It just makes Joe Ryan even more interesting.
In Other News...
Twins Prospects Are Already Raising A Bigger Arizona Fall League Question
The Twins sent eight players to the Arizona Fall League, and the assignment list says plenty about where the organization sees this group in its development. Most of the names are coming from Class-A or High-A, with infielder Kyle DeBarge the lone Double-A presence, a mix that gives Minnesota a chance to push some younger talent into a tougher setting before winter really sets in. DeBarge and outfielder Yasser Mercedes were in the Salt River lineup for the AFL opener and helped the Rafters roll to a 9-3 win, giving the Twins an early look at two players who have been on different tracks in the system.
What makes the setup interesting is the bigger question it raises about what the AFL is meant to solve for Minnesota this fall. This is usually a stage for prospects to face better pitching, sharpen routines and show whether they can handle a faster pace, but the Twins are leaning heavily on players who are still early in the climb. For a front office that has plenty of prospect context to work with already, the real value may come less from the scoreboard than from how these players respond to being challenged a little sooner than expected. [Read more 🡒]
Twins May Finally Make The Early Offseason Push Fans Wanted
The Twins are signaling that this winter could look a lot different from the usual slow burn around the holidays. Owner Tom Pohlad and GM Jeremy Zoll have both said Minnesota intends to be aggressive in the coming offseason, with a preference for getting business done early instead of waiting until late January or February when the market can narrow and opportunities can dry up.
For a club trying to build on the momentum it found at the trade deadline, the timing matters almost as much as the targets. The bullpen remains a clear area to address, and the front office is weighing both free agency and trades as it looks to improve the roster before a possible lockout on Dec. 1 complicates the calendar and, potentially, the clubs plans. [Read more 🡒]
Twins 2027 Outlook Already Puts One Long Term Pressure Point In Focus
Looking ahead to 2027, the Twins already have a few pressure points taking shape in the way their projected roster is expected to fit together. A baseline look at the clubs arbitration-eligible players and payroll picture suggests the front office will be juggling the usual tradeoffs, but the most pressing questions appear to be in the same familiar places: how much starting pitching depth will be available, who will handle first base, and how the bullpen will be pieced together.
Those issues are still a long way from being solved, which is part of why the discussion is more about planning than prediction at this stage. There are possible player moves and areas where the Twins could choose to invest, but for now the bigger takeaway is that the organization already has enough uncertainty on the horizon to make 2027 a meaningful checkpoint for the roster it is trying to build. [Read more 🡒]