Joe Ryan is going to be one of the names that keeps popping up in winter trade chatter, and that makes sense. The Minnesota Twins already showed during their 2025 deadline firesale that they’re willing to move established pieces if the return helps them build for the future.
Ryan’s name even got dragged into the rumor mill hard enough last summer that one national outlet posted on social media that he had been traded to the Boston Red Sox. That report was false, and Ryan stayed put.
This offseason, though, the noise figures to ramp up again. Ryan is headed into the final year of team control in 2027, and a starting pitcher with his résumé is going to draw attention.
The problem for the Twins is that interest and value are not the same thing. And right now, there are three reasons Minnesota is unlikely to cash him in.
The first issue is the split in his performance. Ryan has been electric before the All-Star break throughout his career, with a 3.17 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while holding opponents to a .632 OPS.
After the break, the story changes fast. His second-half line sits at a 4.99 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and a .780 OPS allowed.
There are reasons for some of that drop-off - he has dealt with injuries and tried to pitch through them - but the numbers are still the numbers. Any team trying to buy Ryan now is going to look at the full picture, not just the dominant first-half stretches.
Then there’s the health question, and that one complicates everything. After a rough run of starts coming out of the All-Star break, early reports said Ryan was dealing with a dead-arm issue.
The Twins later put him on the injured list with what was officially labeled a glute injury. That disconnect leaves some uncertainty hanging over his case.
Maybe the issue was broader than first reported. Maybe the glute problem was separate.
Either way, there’s still a cloud around exactly what was bothering him and how much it affected his performance.
That matters in trade talks. If a team is going to send real prospect value for Ryan, it wants confidence it’s getting the pitcher who was mowing hitters down in the first half. When the injury picture is muddy, offers tend to shrink.
The final factor is the calendar, and it could make the whole market feel a little strange. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1, and if there isn’t a new deal, another lockout could follow.
Baseball has already seen how that kind of deadline can speed everything up. After the 2021 season, teams rushed to finish business before the freeze hit, with free agents signing and major trades getting done in a hurry.
That kind of scramble could happen again. On the surface, that might sound like it helps the Twins move Ryan.
Teams may want to act before December 1. But the deadline alone doesn’t fix the other issues.
Everyone knows he’s entering his final year of team control. Everyone can see the second-half slide.
And everyone is going to factor those things into the price.
So yes, the calls will come. Ryan will be in the rumor cycle all winter.
But a market existing is not the same thing as a deal worth making. Minnesota would need a strong return to justify moving one of its best starters, and this doesn’t look like the right moment.
The more likely outcome is that the Twins keep him and let him try to rebuild his value. If he puts together another strong first half in 2027, the conversation could look very different by next year’s trade deadline. For now, though, the combination of performance, injury uncertainty and the looming CBA deadline makes a winter trade look unlikely.
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