Spring training often brings a wave of optimism, but this year, the Hall of Fame ballot is sparking a different kind of excitement for fans of modern-era starting pitchers. Felix Hernández's leap from 20.6% to 46.1% of the vote in 2026 is unprecedented and feels like more than just a statistical anomaly; it's a pivotal shift in how we evaluate pitchers' legacies.
To understand the significance, consider that between Sandy Koufax's retirement in 1966 and Hernández's appearance on the ballot in 2025, 32 pitchers retired with win totals between 165 and 199. None made it to the Hall of Fame, highlighting how Hernández's rise signals a reevaluation of what truly defines pitching excellence.
Hernández has been at the forefront of this shift before. His 2010 American League Cy Young win, achieved with just 13 victories, challenged the traditional emphasis on wins. This was a game-changing moment, and now, the Hall of Fame voting seems poised for a similar transformation.
Johan Santana's career perfectly illustrates why this change is crucial. In 2005, Santana lost the Cy Young to Bartolo Colón, despite leading in WAR, strikeouts, and WHIP.
Had Santana claimed that award, he would have joined the elite club of pitchers with three Cy Youngs-a near-guarantee for Hall of Fame induction. Instead, the difference between two and three awards has been disproportionately significant.
Hall of Famer Tom Glavine has acknowledged the evolving nature of the Hall of Fame. "The days of what guys in past eras have done are gone," Glavine said.
This evolution is necessary, as the role of starting pitchers has dramatically changed. The days of 250-inning workhorses and 300-win careers are likely over, making direct comparisons to past generations increasingly irrelevant.
This context sheds light on why starting pitchers have struggled with BBWAA voters. Only 38 of 75 Hall of Fame starters were elected through regular voting. Without evolving standards, we risk overlooking entire generations of deserving pitchers.
Santana, unfortunately, fell victim to this outdated system. His lone appearance on the BBWAA ballot in 2018 came during one of the most crowded ballots ever.
Despite his dominance from 2003 to 2009, Santana received only 10 votes, falling short of the 5% threshold to remain on the ballot. With each passing year, this oversight becomes more glaring.
During his peak, Santana was unmatched. He was a four-time All-Star, won the pitching Triple Crown, and claimed three ERA titles.
He won two Cy Young Awards and consistently ranked in the top five for five consecutive years. Only Roy Halladay, a first-ballot Hall of Famer, provided more value during that stretch, according to fWAR.
Every pitcher with three Cy Young Awards, aside from Roger Clemens, has been inducted into the Hall of Fame or is expected to be. Santana's exclusion underscores an outdated focus on wins, a metric the sport itself has moved beyond.
Now, Santana's path to Cooperstown lies with the Contemporary Baseball Era Players Committee. This group reevaluates players from 1980 onward, offering a second chance for those overlooked by traditional metrics. It's an opportunity to reassess Santana's dominance in the context of a modern game that values different aspects of pitching prowess.
Hernández's surge suggests a readiness among voters to embrace the realities of today's game. If this trend continues, the Hall of Fame can begin to honor pitchers whose greatness isn't defined by traditional round numbers. For Santana, this shift could be the key to finally securing his rightful place in Cooperstown.