The Minnesota Twins head into the All-Star break sitting at 48-49, and somehow they’re still very much in the mix. They’re only 3.0 games back in the AL Central and tied with the Seattle Mariners for the third and final Wild Card spot in the American League.
That’s a pretty sharp turn from where this team was supposed to be. Minnesota entered the season projected as a bottom-of-the-league club, yet here it is with a legitimate shot at October baseball.
ESPN analyst Bradford Doolittle doesn’t sound convinced the Twins have earned that position so much as stumbled into it. He gave them a 33.3% chance to reach the postseason and described their place in the race as "more or less an accident."
"The Twins' tepid contention is more or less an accident, a by-product of an overachieving group of hitters putting up numbers in the mediocre landscape of this year's AL," Doolittle writes.
He did acknowledge that the Twins have "gotten gradually better" as the season has gone on, but the word choice still lands hard. Calling a team’s playoff chase an accident is about as blunt as it gets.
Still, there was plenty around this roster that made the early optimism thin. Fans were already frustrated with the ownership situation, the offseason didn’t exactly light a fire, and several in-house players were facing pressure to perform better.
What Minnesota has done instead is hang around. The Twins opened well, stayed in the hunt, and managed to do it despite Byron Buxton’s injury and a long absence from Ryan Jeffers.
The offense has carried a lot of the load. After the break, Minnesota’s pitching staff sits 24th with a 4.62 ERA, while the lineup ranks eighth with a .738 OPS.
Buxton, Jeffers, Kody Clemens, Trevor Larnach, Brooks Lee, Ryan Kreidler, Josh Bell, and even Royce Lewis have all been part of an offense that has quietly become one of the best in baseball this season.
So while Doolittle’s read has some bite to it, calling the Twins’ contention an "accident" may go a little too far. With Buxton, Joe Ryan, and several other useful veterans on the roster, this team always had more talent in it than a true afterthought.
Maybe expecting a playoff push was optimistic. But halfway through the year, the Twins being in the race should not be treated like a total shock.
In Other News...
Twins Rotation Anxiety Just Took A Brutal Turn
The Twins rotation depth took another hit this week, and the timing could hardly be worse for a club trying to keep pace in the playoff race. Mick Abel and David Festa were both already on the injured list, leaving Minnesota to keep piecing together innings while the calendar keeps moving toward the trade deadline.
Abels path has been especially frustrating after a right elbow injury led to surgery on June 1, while Festa has been out since spring training with a shoulder and tricep issue. With so little certainty behind the current group, the front office may have little choice but to look outside the organization for starting help if it wants to keep the season on track. [Read more 🡒]
Two Twins Are Running Out Of Time In Wild Card Push
With the Twins closing in on a playoff spot, the margin for error is shrinking for players who have not held up their end of the bargain. Tristan Gray has struggled enough that his grip on a roster spot is looking shaky, especially with Ryan Kreidler offering a steadier option at shortstop and the organization keeping an eye on prospect Kaelen Culpepper as a possible next move.
Austin Martin is in a similarly uneasy spot after his production has slipped hard from where it was earlier in the season. The Twins do not have much patience left for underperformance this time of year, and depending on how the next stretch goes, Gray or Martin could be the one sent to Triple-A St. Paul as Minnesota tries to tighten the roster for the push run. [Read more 🡒]
Another AL Threat Just Entered The Twins Trade Deadline Picture
The Twins trade deadline could get a little more crowded after word that both the Rays and Yankees had scouts at Wrigley Field over the weekend watching Ryan Jeffers, Joe Ryan and Trevor Larnach. Tampa Bay is expected to be in the market for help and has clear needs behind the plate, in the rotation and in the outfield, which makes Minnesotas veteran trio a natural fit if the Rays decide to get aggressive.
Joe Ryan is the headliner in that group, but Jeffers and Larnach also give the Twins options if the deadline market starts to heat up. With Tampa Bay and New York both circling the same roster, Minnesota may find itself dealing with more than one contender for the same pieces, and that kind of overlap can change the conversation quickly as July winds down. [Read more 🡒]