The Cubs are heading into another winter where pitching has to be the priority, and this time the list of needs is hard to ignore. With Gausman, Holmes, Boyd, and Imanaga all set to depart through free agency, Chicago is staring at a rotation picture full of uncertainty. Steele, Cabrera, Ben Brown, and Horton are all part of the conversation, but each comes with questions.
The sense here is pretty clear: the Cubs need to add arms in more than one way. A starter through free agency.
Another through trade. Maybe both.
Steve Adams pointed to a market that may actually fit how the Cubs like to operate, since there aren’t many obvious long-term pitching deals out there. That matters because the Cubs, as he put it, don’t love to go long-term on pitching contracts.
A few names were floated as fits, even if some feel more realistic than others. Tarik Skubal doesn’t seem likely based on how the Cubs have handled these situations in recent years, and Trevor Rogers probably isn’t in the mix either. But there are several arms that could make sense, including Gausman, Boyd, Holmes, Sonny Gray, Robbie Ray, and Tyler Mahle.
The trade market could be just as important. Drew Rasmussen was mentioned as one of the likeliest pitchers to move this winter, while Reid Detmers is expected to be available again.
Adams also noted that the Cubs liked Detmers at the deadline. And after years of speculation, the Mariners may finally be willing to deal a starter, which could put George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, or Emerson Hancock into play to some degree.
The bottom line for Chicago is simple: one addition probably won’t be enough. The rotation has too many unknowns for that. Adams’ view was that the Cubs should both sign a starter and trade for another rotation arm if they want to give themselves a real chance to be taken seriously in the division next season.
Across the American League Central, the Twins appear to be facing their own decisions on two players who may no longer have clear roles. Trevor Larnach and Bailey Ober both came up in that discussion, and the outlook on both is leaning toward an exit.
Larnach, Adams said, is likely done in Minnesota. He even pointed to Larnach’s comments to the Star Tribune this week, where Larnach suggested he expects to be gone. The logic for the Twins is straightforward: with Buxton, Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall, Alan Roden and other prospects such as Hendry Mendez in the mix, paying roughly $7 million for Larnach’s final arbitration year doesn’t make much sense.
The return, if there is one, probably wouldn’t be dramatic. Adams suggested a reliever or a low-end prospect could be the ceiling, and he also said Larnach has slipped a lot since the deadline. With no real defensive value to speak of, a non-tender is also in play.
Ober’s situation looks similar, though there may be a little more room for a trade. The Twins are expecting Pablo Lopez back to join Joe Ryan, Taj Bradley and a group that includes Mick Abel, Connor Prielipp, Zebby Matthews and Kendry Rojas. They also dealt an actual prospect for Dean Kremer at the deadline, and Kremer is in the same price range and service bucket as Ober.
Since the trade, Kremer has pitched mostly well and, in Adams’ view, has better stuff than Ober. Ober’s fastball slipped under 90 mph this year, even though he has a solid track record as a fourth starter.
That gives Minnesota a choice: move him for a modest return or simply cut ties. A non-tender remains possible there too.
If the Twins can find a team willing to part with something like the Athletics’ or Giants’ No. 23 prospect, that would be worth considering.
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